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No. of Recommendations: 6

In retrospect, yes looking at what management said they'd done MAY help in understanding why CF numbers went as they did. I'm going to do this with LTC, as their 1Q19 drop in Revenue from Rents is very concerning to me for the amount of LTC I hold.

But for purposes of projecting forward what this or that sale will have on Revenues and CFFO, I've found, is of almost no value. The reason is management has so many things they can do with investment assets, including their financing, that it is almost impossible to predict any kind of outcome...although this tends to be the engine of retail analysis. Simply put, you and I cannot see what management sees and you and I are NOT experienced REIT managers who can look at a property portfolio and capital funding mix and draw any sort of even general conclusions based on our experience in this arena.

What you and I can see with great accuracy is the trend in how well management has performed by simply analyzing their corporate checkbook. Like a household's checkbook, the owner can say anything they wish, but they cannot, with very rare exceptions, change the trend in how their cash flows. Competent management will recognize trouble on the horizon and adjust...and their CF trends will show this. Not-so-competent management will also show this. Incompetent management will stick out like a smoker in a theater. In the end, we're all betting on management's abilities.

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