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INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

MVIS (market cap is $0.086B was $0.085B)
Pardon me if you’ve heard this before. I’ve owned this stock for twenty years, so some repetition is natural. AKA On no, here we go, again.

MicroVision is an electronics component company based on the technology inherent in MEMS mirrors, mirrors tiny enough to fit on and be built as a computer chip. Such small mirrors can oscillate at high rates allowing image projection and image capture in the visible part of the spectrum and beyond. This enables the creation of compact, efficient projectors (fit inside a mobile phone ala the cameras they already carry); and sensors like LiDAR for vehicles and security systems. There are also applications that display an image and detect the user’s hand gestures, allowing interactivity.

The potential is so enormous that it is difficult to properly evaluate. Combine the current display and sensor markets, assume some market share, and compute numbers that can justify extraordinary stock prices. It is a common reaction for new shareholders, me included. The reality has been an ongoing assertion from management that success will happen within a few months or at most a couple of years - an assertion that has been repeated for over ten years. Maybe this is the time. So far, that time has not come. The technology is impressive and reasonably proven, but the electronics manufacturers have yet to produce an obvious success. Much is expected of Microsoft’s Hololens, but management has yet to confirm that MicroVision products are included. At least reading from the stock discussion boards, management is well known for not communicating well. The company has survived on dilution while it has experienced years (or decades) of delays.

Until recently, the risk was bankruptcy, which is possible but less probable in my estimation. The reward has diminished as competition has advanced in the meantime, but the market is so enormous that there should be enough room for all. To me, the more likely risk is a buyout that profits management without significantly approaching the cost basis of many individual stockholders. Prior CEOs asserted that they’d carry the company to maturity as an independent entity, but a buyer can change that by finding the critical price that creates a majority of shares willing to sell. I suspect that is at least an order of magnitude lower than the stock’s potential.

I continue to hold because of the potential, but no longer trust management. I do, however, trust financial reports, something I suspect is true with the rest of the investment community. Considering that datum I recall a claim that the company is majority owned by retail investors.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. Dilution no longer means that I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog )
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