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Four years results

You will hear an incessant chatter from know-nothings telling you that no one can beat the averages and that stock picking doesn’t work, and that we will all return to the mean, so I thought that I’d give you a little bit of facts about that. Here are my last four years of results compounded, which you can compare against the S&P. Remember that I’m not just picking my results off the wall. I posted my positions and their sizes every month of those four years so any one who wants to check me out could have done it. It’s real, and others on the board have done approximately the same, some a little better and some a little worrse, but in the range. It can be done, although I strongly doubt that we will ever have another year like this one.
 

2017: + 84.2% $100 becomes $184.20
2018: + 71.4% $100 becomes $171.40
2019 + 28.4% $100 becomes $128.40
2020 + 233.3% $100 becomes $333.30


In four years that multiplies out like this: .

1.842 x 1.714 x 1.284 x 3.333 = 13.511 or 1,351% of what I started with, that’s thirteen and a half TIMES what I started with, or up 1251%. In four years.


During that time the S&P did the following: Up 19.9%, down 6.6%, up 28.9%, up 16.2%, which multiplies out to:

1.199 x 0.934 x 1.289 x 1.162 = 1.677 or 167% of what it started with, that’s not even a simple double, it's not even close to just a double, it’s up 67% in four years, compared to up 1251%.


Tell me again that active intelligent stock picking doesn’t work! The only ones who say that are the people who don’t know how to do it.

Read the Knowledgebase several times. And the other articles on the side panel. And the posts with lots of recs by people you trust, and you may learn how to do it too.

Best,

Saul
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