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My point, such as it is, is that using charts to determine reversion to mean right now is a bit dicey.

I would go further and say that using charts to determine reversion to a mean is always is a bit dicey.

The perception that a price-CAGR chart going back 25 or 30 years has more verity than a 16 year one has a not insignificant factor weighing against it, that is: the longer a company is followed the more that company, over the span of time, is likely to have changed, adapted, or morphed into something other. Even if it hasn't the economic environment, and/or its customer base, likely has.

As you bring up AT&T, it's not the same company it was; not at all, and its been through the rinse a few times. AT&T is just a storied name that acquiring companies have leveraged for all it's worth creating the illusion of consistency and reliability when the truth has been anything but.

kelbon
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