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I started Buying this stock back in April and I have amassed 3000 shares around the $3.00 mark. Why am I still holding on to this? I guess for the same reason why I bought it back in April. This is the future. Someone tell me why this stock will not be trading at $36 a share when they reach a 3 million customer base such as XM. I KNOW the short comings of the stock already. I thought the stock would trade around $10 in about 2 more years. I believe the howard Stern gig was a beautiful move and has this industry moving faster than expected both with interest and subsciptions. Tell me why I should get out now!! SIRIously!
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So you can get back in at 4-5 dollars later with all that free money.
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Yeah, you said it yourself. None of us would have expected a $10 price tag before most of next year went by, much less by the end of this one. I agree it'll be a great investment over the long term, but if you can make an extra couple grand before you do your Christmas shopping and still get back in for less than you sold it... wouldn't that make sense, too?

Now granted, this is all based on the price tag coming back down to earth in the near future. It is possible it could maintain such levels until the financials catch up, but I just don't see it happening that quickly. The biggest obstacle both SIRI and XM have at the moment is increasing market penetration. When their base model equipment runs you $400 on top of a monthly subscription, and you can already get your kid an iPod for around half that to hold him over till the prices come down and Stern's on the air, the satellite market just has a long way to go until they get the subscriber numbers they need to turn a SIRIous profit.

- meta
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Here's a quick metric comparing it to XMSR.

Siri market cap is 11.4B
XM market cap is 7.9B

Siri has 1M subs
XM has 3 M subs

The market is valueing each Siri sub at 11.4B/1M = $11,000
The market is valueing each XM sub at 7.9B/3M = $2600

And SIRI spends over $400 to gain each subscriber where XM spends $70.

SIRI IS NOT GOING TO $36. People who think that SIRI is going to $36 because XM went to $36 is the absolute most idiotic statement anyone can make in the market, but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough people believe it. I'll give you that much credit.

rruyy
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Well, I won't tell you anything but here is my thought.

What was the total return you wanted from this money? 10%, 12%, 15% annually? Well if you were looking for that annual return for the next 3 years...and you get it all in one year...I would take the money and say all is good.

I wouldn't look back.

Find the next stock you want to invest in for the next 3, 5, 10 years.

In the meantime, if the price comes back down...bonus!...you can buy back in and still have your time frame of 3 years or so.

That is my story.

Buffy (who is sticking to it...)
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Someone tell me why this stock will not be trading at $36 a share when they reach a 3 million customer base such as XM

Because for their 3 million customers XM has only 205M shares outstanding while right now SIRI has 1.6B shares so given all other things being equal a share of SIRI should be worth about an eigth of a share of XM. So if XM is a $36 dollar stock then SIRI should be worth about $4-5. Of course not everything is equal but SIRI has to either start showing some serious earnings or do some serious buy backs to reduce the amount of shares outstanding.

herb
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Thanks to all of you. obviously, I have alot to learn. I will probably sell. This is all pretty new to me and I am investing with left over money. That is why I rely on Fools like you!!!
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rruyy is absolutely right. I can add to that by saying siri has 1.26 billion shares outstanding while xmsr has only 205 million shares outstanding. you do the math. or maybe I will for you. At $36 a share siri would have a market cap of $45 billion. GET REAL

mjk
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Thank rruyy... you're helping me believe I remain sane. :-) This board is so much fun.

Thanks to Karen too. Appreciated your earlier response to my sell decision.

I'm definitely willing to pick it up again later... when it's back in the $6 range...
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when it's back in the $6 range...

Hey, that was today!
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when it's back in the $6 range...

Hey, that was today!



Definitely need low $6's or even mid-to-high $5's. Possibly lower depending on my hype tolerance factor in coming days.
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Definitely need low $6's or even mid-to-high $5's. Possibly lower depending on my hype tolerance factor in coming days.

I dont think I'll be buying anything until next year. Prices are overinflated. I have always found the best times to buy are in january or february and again in August. august is really my favorite time to purchase shares!

Karen
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