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<<Well, I posted this post on the MCOM board and would also like to hear from the Fools of the wireless world. Thanks. >>

Howdy Fellow Ricochet Investing Fools,

Well first off I'd like to say hello to all the "wireless" Fools on this board. I've been lurking around for a couple of months checking back every now and then so I am really not a "new" Fool in actuality. (Just changed my name.)

After doing some research, requesting an investor packet from Metricom, and reading a couple of posts from this board as well as other investor sites, I had a couple of nagging questions if you will about Metricom:

1.)After finding out that Metricom has approximately 30,000 current Ricochet users in its 7-8 yrs. of existence(please correct me if I am off in my numbers), I came to question how in the world will Metricom be able to acquire their estimates of having nearly 2 Million Ricochet(2) users by the year 2002?

It seems to me that in order for them to reach their estimates, they must complete their entire plan of having nationwide access in 50 major metropolitan areas by their deadline and in doing so must hope that the Ricochet(2) will gather enough interests from mostly business users who I believe use the service the most. Seems like its gonna be an extremely busy 2-3 years ahead for Metricom don't you think? I'm not saying at all that this is not possible but the numbers seem a little optimistic. Geez, I mean ATHM has around 500,000 current users and it expects to have atleast 4-5 million users by 2003 and its network is already up and running while Metricom is still building theirs.


2.)Much publication has been made about the 600 million investment MCI Worldcom has made towards Metricom but I question if Metricom will ever produce the profits needed to repay the loan given to them along with the additional funding estimated at 400 million needed to build out its Ricochet(2)network. Looking at the 10K reports for Metricom for the last few years, one can see that the company is really losing $$$$. I don't know if Metricom will be able to post profits instead of losses each time the company posts its numbers. Could it be that the reason Metricom is losing so much is because of its efforts to establish its network?

3.)Although Metricom's current major competition I believe is Cellular Digital Packet Data(CDPD), what other wireless technology out there (if any) has the
capability to compete with the Ricochet(2) technology? Right now, I believe that digital voice PCS service is offered using CDMA or TDMA technology at 14.4kbps on a per minute basis but speeds could increase with the management of PCS spectrum. I am not really up to date on other wireless technology but is there products offered by major wireless companies such as Nokia and QCOM or other wireless companies that compete with the Richochet?

Other factors that could slow the market acceptance of Ricochet may be the reduction in the price of wired high speed cable internet connections or the price of DSL lines that are offered by a number of ISP carriers. I believe that the dramatic price drops in basic telephone internet connection could ultimately be the most damaging for Metricom.

Investing in Metricom I believe is really an act of faith like David Gardner has said. This baby could be atleast a 10 bagger or it could also be a dud full of hype. My prediction: Given time, Metricom investors just may be able to see those green numbers on the days Metricom posts their numbers. I too am very interested in this Ricochet technology and will be closely monitoring Metricom in the coming months. (Hopefully to become a future shareholder before all shares are gone.) Good luck and best wishes to you all.

Ray

BTW, I know my username Mello is spelled incorrectly.My apologies if there are more spelling errors in this post. All I have to say is GRRRRR to the Fool who had registered before me to use the name MellowYellow only to never post. ;^(
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<I came to question how in the world will Metricom be able to acquire their estimates of having nearly 2 Million Ricochet(2) users by the year 2002? >

Welcome Ray,

I have not read that anywhere but my own estimates are for 500,000 subscribers by 2003 for by that time they will be up in running in 40+ major cities. The reason for my estimate being so high is because they will be offering 128kbps with unlimited wireless airtime for only $25 a month. The 128KBPS will be up and fully in place by early 2001. By December 1999 the Ricochet modem will be working at 56kbps thus making very compatible with wire lines. Even with 500,000 subscribers you will still have a growth rate of 1566%
or or 76% average per year. Do you think that Paul Allen would invest $300 million in a company that didn't have those type of growth rates!!!!

As for losing money I'm sure there is a breakeven point which I don't know, But at $300 per subscriber multiplied by 500,000 gives you $150,000,000 and then $150,000,000 in Modem sales. I am probably the acception to the rule but I will be buying two modems , one for my home computer and one for the car.

MCI/WorldCom invested $300 Million
Vulcan Ventures invested $300 Million

Both will get Preferred Stock convertable into common and paying I think a 5% dividend.

Thus because Vulcan had bought 2 million shares before this they will with their new $300 Million investment own 49% of the company.

MCI/WorldCom will own 38%

Thus the two of them will own 87% of the company.

But MCI/Worldcom just gave MCOM a five year contract for hundreds of million to supply the modems for they will sell them to their business customers.

Thus I would not worry about the loan because they gave Paul Allen and MCI a prive IPO of 87% of the stock of the company and recieved $600 million in cash.

As for the competition their is none, Mobile phones which will give you tops 14KBPS are atleast 1/3 the speed of my Ricochet. I am writing you now at 38.4KBPS and will be moving at 56KBPS shortly in Seattle.
Plus when you use your mobile phone for wireless internet you tie up your phone line. When I travel I have my Nokia phone on my side and my Ricochet modem glued to my laptop. Once you use this product you will be forced to buy the stock for it is just the ultimate toy. NO PHONE LINES+ALWAYS ON+ONE FLAT FEE+ULTIMATE MOBILITY= TOTAL FREEDOM!!!!!!!!

I agree with David Gardner but think it will be a 100 bagger before this show comes to an end. I heard that Metricom will someday release speeds of 384KBPS around 2005.

MYCROFT
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<<<<< I agree with David Gardner but think it will be a 100 bagger before this show comes to an end. I heard that Metricom will someday release speeds of 384KBPS around 2005. >>>>

What?? Did I miss something? What did David G. have to say, Mycroft2064?

Appreciate your help.

RS
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<What?? Did I miss something? What did David G. have to say, Mycroft2064?>

He said that he thought MCOM would be a ten bagger!!

MYCROFT
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