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in the spooz the past three days (last 4 closes)

contrary to randowm walk i find that three day streaks where the market trades very narrow (cls-cls <.25% for three or more days in a row) to be much more infrequent than simple random simulations would indicate. the fourth day usually shows a large breakout in one direction or the other. on the whole, contrary to expectations and most recent two cases (case rate) the 1990-2004 data indicates that whenever the market trades in such a narrow range for 3 or more days it is very bearish for the next day. but in any case large (>1.25%) one day moves tend to follow

e.g. cash sp 1997-04
3 days cls-cls < .003% of index
Next day

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