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No. of Recommendations: 0
You'll find more info on the DELL board, of course.
But here's my argument for DELL:
1) Growth. What can you say? Over 60% annualized trailing growth. Projected 40%+ future growth. Earnings growth has outstripped sales growth - always a good sign.
2) More growth. How can DELL keep growing?
a) DELL still only has 7% market share. Continued
consolodation has led to ever-increasing market share for the big players. There's no reason for that to stop.
b) DELL has barely tapped the consumer market. Only 10% of sales are to consumers and this part of the business has actually shown TRIPLE DIGIT growth in recent earnings reports.
c) DELL has barely tapped the Asian markets. Only 7% of revenues come from Asia currently. DELL is pushing aggressively into the completely untapped Chinese market (they're building a factory in China). Asian sales have show rapid growth even during the recent Asian crisis when PC sales, as a whole, have been down.
d) Servers. A faster growing market and a much higher margin market for DELL than the desktop area.
e) Laptops. See d.
f) Internet Sales. Guess what? DELL's an Internet company too. They've gone from $1 million/day to around $4 million/day on their Internet site in about a year's time. In all honesty, DELL is the most profitable Internet company around.
g) More Internet. We may well see DELL.net sometime soon - an ISP that comes "ready to access" when you boot up your DELL.
3) Performance. DELL has appreciated 140% annually over the last 5 years. That's no typo.
4) Management. Michael Dell. When you invest your money in a company, you'reinvesting your money in people. Michael Dell is 33 years old and a multi-billionaire - all of his own making. This college dropout has made his mistakes (an ill-considered venture into the reseller market, faulty laptops) and persevered through all challenges. Even the most rabid DELL bears would have to admit Michael Dell is among the elite CEOs in the world.
5) Margins. They keep going up. Even recently with declining PC prices, DELL increased their Operating margin.
I'll admit that I can understand the concerns over whether this is a "buy it and check in 10 years later" kinda stock. But is that a _requirement_ to be a Cash King? I think DELL is clearly a Cash King now and for the near-term future. I think DELL, with the great management of Michael Dell, will continue to be one of the world's elite companies, changing product mixes quicker than anyone else and adapting to the shifting technology climate.
I think the same concerns should apply to Intel (what if microprocessors become obsolete?), Microsoft (what if a vastly superior alternative to WinTel catches on?) and Cisco (their technology is hot now but the winds can shift any time) but that doesn't stop them from being Cash Kings. It shouldn't stop DELL either.
-chris
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