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Neil Ferguson does a remarkable backpedal:

Instead of 500k dead in the UK, He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill >under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case because they were so old and sick; and the total could be much lower.


Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses trasmission have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.

Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within “two to three weeks” - last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary.

One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began its lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.

Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US. Media Team: Apocalypse! is not interested.

It's hard to overestimate the significance of this change. UK Imperial College is the source of all the apocalyptic warnings that have been adopted by the US media. Oxford researchers found numerous consequential holes in UKImp data last week and were excoriated by the press for it.
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