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No doubt RAD is at high risk for bankruptcy, otherwise it wouldn't be worth $1.3 billion, with Walgreen at $38.5 billion.

IMO, it's best to see an investment in Rite-Aid as basically a call option, where there is a good chance *say 50%) that it expires worthless (bankruptcy), but if it does happen to survive, it may be worth a good deal more than $1.50 a share.

Models can be useful, if they are used properly. Blaming models for the subprime mess is silly, that mess was caused by reckless behaviour, justified by using models with unrealistic assumptions.

Regards, BP
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