Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 0
No need to argue....arguing is futile. You can never argue with anyone that sees something from a different point of view. If one person stands in a valley and the other on the top of a mountain then neither can adequately explain to the other the "correctness" of their point of view.

Each side sees things that the other does not see. Which is why I fully know that I do have blind spots.

You might have a strong belief in mathematics and maybe things that some call "scientific analysis". My beliefs are not as strong in these areas because in my younger life I studied such things ad nauseum. While some had a easy time breezing through college studying such things as Law or trying to become a business major. I studied things such as Diffy Q's...short for Differential Equations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_equation

The Diffy q's were not that hard. It was trying to apply them in high end electrical engineering courses or stuff like Strength of Materials http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strength_of_materials . You know plugging numbers and letters into different formulas such as these:

http://www.eformulae.com/engineering/strength_materials.php

That type of stuff gave me a big headache....not only did it give me a headache, I slowly came to the conclusion that high end mathematics may not hold all the answers for various different reasons.

One of which is that do you know that sometimes mathematics sometimes predicts things that sometime are not observed in "reality". This sometimes perplexes physicists and leads to massive arguments over who is right and who is wrong. There is sometimes many a argument that takes place between the theoretical physicist and the experimental physicist.. Then who is right??

There is certain phenomenon in this universe that can not adequately be explained.....by science or mathematics. For the most part, I learned that things work until they don't work any more and very few people are accurate in predicting when a thing will fail...except maybe on occasion Nikola Tesla...but that is another story or maybe it is just a myth.....

So, yes certain relationships might appear to work...they might have worked for so long that maybe some people consider them absolute laws that can't be violated......but not me. I learned over time that sometimes the improbable can and does happen and while one can play the odds on a certain thing happening, it is not too smart to believe something will happen 100% of the time because it leads to carelessness...not checking something out because the belief is a infallible one. I often get reminded by others when I begin thinking this way about certain things and that to me is a good thing!!!

There are some people that fall into that trap with Motley Fool itself. They read the advertisements and instantly have a 100% belief that just by picking TMF stocks when the newsletter says to pick them that they will be in the land of riches. Obviously for many reasons, things do not work out that way....the system is imperfect but the system tries to improve on it's flaws......is more of the type of thinking that I use.

I don't believe I am perfect and I don't believe people like Nikola Tesla http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla or Albert Einstein or Stephen Hawking or Kip Thorne http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kip_Thorne or John Preskill http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Preskill or Carl Sagan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Sagan or Buckminster Fuller http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckminster_Fuller or any other one could name had complete 100% infallible conclusions.

Maybe one day such a claim can be made but to me such a claim I have not yet found to be 100% certain.....Bringing us back to the real world. I have a extremely small belief level that anyone can predict market movements with a extreme degree of accuracy over long periods of time.

In short bursts maybe one can do that but year after year is rather difficult.......and if one is really successful doing that I doubt they are talking much about it. If I could successfully game the system I certainly would not let others in on it for usually when too many people know the system in the financial arena, then the system fails to work or at least that is wat I observed up until now.

As for Cramer. I think he is probably a great stock picker but his main problem is he is not operating a hedge fund any more with a hidden hand and you only see the results. The Cramer of today Cramer is like a poker player where everyone sees his hand. People can and do game Cramers picks. Another problem Cramer has is he has a comment for every stock and every situation. There is just no way he can be right on all of the opinions that he has that mostly come off the top of his head.

If a person knows what to look for, they can mine valuable intelligence from Cramer....It just takes time to know what to grab and what to throw away. For some it is too tedious to wade through the 80% of garbage to get to the 20% gold and that is ok. Everyone has their own style.




Rob S
Print the post  

Announcements

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.