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…unless it’s a TSLA…
https://qz.com/1710285/the-fledgling-market-for-used-evs-in-...
“…China loves a used Tesla as much as it loves a brand-new one.

Five years after the market for new electric vehicles took off in China, a fledgling used-car market is forming around the close to 3.5 million EV cars (link in Chinese) already sold, and Tesla looks set to rule it.

A Tesla’s residual value—basically the future value of a car after a certain amount of use—at one year is more than 70% of its original price, far higher than the value of any Chinese EV model at the same mark, according to an August report from a Chinese automobile industry group studying leasing and resales…”



Fascinating chart in that article with data on resale values…

On the one hand that data directly disputes my complaints and claims that TSLAs are subject to hyper-depreciation due to the insane rate of evolution of their products. I loooove my ancient 2013 P85… but I know that I probably can’t recoup half of what I paid for it 3 years ago (and I got it for less than 50% of the original price when I bought it in 2016)… and that in my book is insane depreciation.

Of course depreciation don’t matter none if you plan to be buried in your TSLA…. ;)

I just like to complain.


On the other hand… This resale data is yet another good sign for the maaaassive demand for TSLAs that we’ve known has far surpassed TSLA’s ability to supply during their entire history… which is the only reason you build Gigafactories like they’re going out of style.

Speaking of which - here’s the latest with some staged M3 partial bodies (just so a few rabid fans can foam at the mouth about GF3 already being in production):
https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-gigafactory-3-leaked-pi...


Of course on the one hand the insanely rapid build of the GF3 is a great sign for the continued exponential rocket-ride that is TSLA’s sales and success.


On the other hand - this GF3 is being built in China - and with all due respect to our Chinese Foolish friends - that is a reasonable grounds for concern.


What are some of those concerns…

One of many is about intellectual property.

There is no doubt among the Chinese I’ve spoken with, or with anyone rational, that the Chinese govt encourages IP theft. Of course no one has seen a Chinese policy document that says “thou shalt steal US patents”… but that’s like arguing that no one was in the room when Harvey Weinstein had his way with all those young women.

The interesting thing with TSLA, of course, is that their goal is to expedite the transition to renewable energy and energy-use like EVs… to the point where they open-sourced their patents.

So if TSLA has opened their kimono for all to see the details of their technical prowess - and for sure we can bet that the Chinese have pilfered through that stash of IP - then why are the Chinese BEV companies unable to reproduce TSLA’s successes? Why the dismal resale value of Chinese EVs?


That right there may be the core reason why 1. TSLA was willing to open-source their patents... and 2. TSLA was willing to go into the lion’s den and open a manufacturing facility right in China where every single secret can be pilfered with impunity.


Maybe the core reason for TSLA’s chill behavior is that - although ideas are important and have *some* value - by themselves ideas are worthless. Any idea that anyone has had - with 7B people on this world - someone else (or more likely many people) has had that same idea as well. As even the Bible says - there is nothing new under the sun.

The REAL value is all about how do you DO something with that idea. If you don’t DO something - that brilliant idea of yours is wasted neuronal metabolic processes turning into heat and waste products.


And Elon and TSLA know better than anyone that turning an idea or even a patent or a trade secret into reality is the hardest part - coming up with the idea is the easy part of that process.


So we may see that despite the rampant pillaging of IP by the Chinese - TSLA’s continued dominance in new car sales will continue… because the Chinese (and Americans and Germans and Japanese and everyone else) will be unable to physically replicate TSLA’s work…notice how Porsche’s newest looong-hyped car can’t beat the performance of TSLA’s almost-decade-old car despite costing almost DOUBLE.


And that is all thanks to the geniosity of Elon’s engineering and executive brilliance (Elon’s geniosity is the reason why TSLA and SpaceX continue to dominate as the #1 place the top engineering talent wants to go and work).


Duuude1
(p.s., a point of reference on Elon’s and TSLA’s success… NFLX is considered one of the most successful tech companies - but TSLA has surpassed NFLX’s sales in half the time - and in an industry that is muuuuch harder.)
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