No. of Recommendations: 5
Not a word about newbies in this post, I promise :-)

I think that we have encountered a research plateau.

Loren is right on the mark, IMFO. I first delved into mechanical investing in 1990 and have racked my brains trying to think of new angles on what has been done here. It's very difficult to come up with anything which hasn't previously been explored in some form or other. For example, PEG-13 is a wonderfully effective screen and if you examine the rules behind it, is a very clever approach. But the very existence of the PEG screens means one less open avenue of exploration.

I think Loren in particular, as well as others, are hamstrung by lack of access to historical data, whether it be daily, weekly, monthly, technical, fundamental, within or outside of the Value Line universe. I second the notion that there is work yet to be done in the area of rebalancing periodicity. It could turn out however, after collecting a body of weekly or even daily data, that shorter periodicity is not necessarily better; OTOH Loren's research would benefit from weekly data for the construction of his indicators. I have one or two ideas for avenues of exploration but lack the time and data to explore them. As with any research effort those ideas may lead to viable new screens or they may not.

TA is mostly voodoo

No argument there :-) TA could be useful to us or it could lead us further down the data mine shaft.

Having come as far as this community has, I believe there is still a frontier with regard to studying the results/performance of existing screens. My histograms are one small step in that direction, and Randy Harmelink's Impact Value studies are a significant contribution.

A lot of the back-and-forth here (when we aren't discussing what to do about those darn newbies) consists of peer review, or checks and balances as to what might or might not work and why -- for example, various of us are at the ready to act as vigilant data-mining/curve-fitting police. This is a good thing; you never know what it might inspire.
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