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As Mr Buffett has often noted, Berkshire is unlikely to beat the broad US market when the broad US market is doing particularly well.
The advantage, if any, is expected to come at other times.

A corollary is that if you see no advantage recently relative to market, and the broad US market has been doing particularly well,
that may simply be the expected result rather than a conclusion of "Buffett has lost it".

Here's a fun table.
I compared rolling five year total returns of Berkshire and the S&P for starting periods since 1996.
I divided the S&P returns into deciles, and looked at how Berkshire's stock (not book value) did relative to the S&P depending on the S&P return.

S&P return from -6.7% to -1.9%, BRK relative to market averaged +7.0%, so BRK absolute return averaged  4.1%/year
S&P return from -1.9% to -0.4%, BRK relative to market averaged +7.3%, so BRK absolute return averaged 6.0%
S&P return from -0.4% to 0.5%, BRK relative to market averaged +3.9%, so BRK absolute return averaged 4.1%
S&P return from 0.5% to 2.3%, BRK relative to market averaged +3.3%, so BRK absolute return averaged 4.6%
S&P return from 2.3% to 6.0%, BRK relative to market averaged +2.1%, so BRK absolute return averaged 5.5%
S&P return from 6.0% to 9.8%, BRK relative to market averaged +2.6%, so BRK absolute return averaged 10.2%
S&P return from 9.8% to 11.6%, BRK relative to market averaged +1.8%, so BRK absolute return averaged 12.6%
S&P return from 11.6% to 14.1%, BRK relative to market averaged +0.2%, so BRK absolute return averaged 13.2%
S&P return from 14.1% to 15.5%, BRK relative to market averaged -0.1%, so BRK absolute return averaged 14.6%
S&P return from 15.5% to 22.9%, BRK relative to market averaged -2.1%, so BRK absolute return averaged 14.9%


A regression on the monthly data points gave the formula:
   Expected relative to market annualized performance = -0.386 times S&P returns, plus 5.07%.

With S&P five year performance of 10.5%, you'd expect Berkshire to outperform by about 1%, but it has underperformed by -0.6%.
Within rounding error, we've seen pretty much the return you'd expect.
Though it's no doubt a bit optimistic for the future, that formula implies that Berkshire's stock return will outperform the broad US market except when S&P returns exceed 13.1%/year for five years.


Most notable times when the simple linear regression model wasn't a good fit with reality:
Berkshire's performance was
"unexpectedly" good ending around Feb 2005, 17% outperformance instead of the model's prediction of 5.5%.
"unexpectedly" bad ending around Dec 2012, -2.2% underperformance instead of the model's prediction of +4.4% outperformance.
(as a consolation, the next five years returned 17.2%/year for Berkshire holders)


The same table of recent S&P performance is therefore also a good predictor of the number of articles you'll see suggesting that Mr Buffett has lost it.

Jim
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