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Note to self - the disappointing results in CAPs over the past few years are almost entirely bc i've been crushed by 2015 short picks that have gone the other way: NFLX, DPZ, ADBE, ADSK, POOL, WDFC. SHAK was the only short from that batch that has worked out. I'd be breakeven in CAPs had I not made those picks. 

What is interesting that these are the very picks that should benefit greatly during the next downturn (whenever that is, 2020 maybe?) so despite looking like terrible picks for 3 years now, there's a good chance they still end up winners for me, on net.

My philosophy remains basically the same - buy string companies selling cheaply in relation to what you'd conservatively expect them to be earning 3-5 years hence. Red-thumb companies selling most expensively relative to what you expect them to be earning 3-5 years hence.

I started this page in March 2012 (almost exactly 3 years from the 2009 bottom) with the goal of making picks through a full economic cycle. As a result, I will end all picks and discontinue using this account exactly 3 years after the bottom of the next bear market. Probably sometime between 2021 and 2024.

Unless I end up with amazing returns vs the market between now and then (which could happen during the next downturn) I will likely give up my little stock picking hobby entirely and spend the rest of my life in low-cost passive index funds.  

In the (probably unlikely event) that my account flourishes between now and then, I may consider maging my own real life investments.

Only time will tell.



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