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G'day,

Does anyone have any thoughts on Novogen (ASX:NRT) as a Rule Breaker OZ style???

Novogen call themselves a pharmaceutical and healthcare company focused on the development and marketing of products using phenolic hormones (Isoflavones). They currently have two products Promensil and Trinovin on the market with a few more in R&D. They are using the cashflow from the Sales of these products to finance expansion and the R&D for other products (cancer treating mainly). They are also involved in a lawsuit with a previous subcontractor!

Here's my thoughts versus Rule Breaker categories :-

1. Top Dog/1st Mover - Novogen appear to be the leader in the specific field of Isoflavone development. However, their Promensil product (for menopause) and Trinovin (prostrate) do have competition from other types of pharmaceuticals. Can anyone tell me if either of the above products are any good? Any Doctors on the Fool boards???

2. Sustainable Advantage - Novogen continue R&D on the cancer treating drugs, have 12 patents and propriety ownership of the red clover they use to extract the Isoflavones. Novogen also manufacture their own product.

3. High Relative Strength - Don't know! They have doubled over the last year or two!!!

4. Good Management/ Smart Backing - Assume they do, but there is that lawsuit!!!! They have good and improving Cash-Debt ratio's although their Fool Flow ratio is poor. Sales have grown heaps in the last few years. They are also appear agressive by the expansion into US and Netherlands. But there is that lawsuit!!!!!

5. Consumer Appeal - The products are directed at the aged and the community is aging. The product is a natural alternative to "synthetic" drugs, which may have some appeal. Talking to my mother, the biggest advantage would be no side effects. My conclusion would be if the products work well then they could be sold to the masses.

6. Overvalued - ??? I have found an email (not on Fool boards) from someone who wants to short them. His argument was they are just a food company (which is partly true since they sell it in supermarkets and health food stores).

Can someone have a look at the current products and shed any light on Isoflavone technology?? I've searched the internet and not had much luck on information (by the end user or medical profession) about the quality of the product .

Thanks,....MacFool.


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Have more knowledge of Promensil than of Trinovin. Everyone I have spoken to seems to be very happy with the product. I do know of one Doctor who has been recommending it highly. Sales also seem to be very strong.

Have read up on the company a bit and they seem to have very good managment.

As far as is it Over valued? The company seems to be doing everything right.(good products,sound managment,increasing sales,interesting products in the pipe line)
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The latest press release of Novogen NASDAQ:NVGN talks about greatly improved cholesterol ratios with an over the counter drug. According to my doctor, if this is true, then this is one of the most significant steps forward in cholesterol treatment yet. The potential market is billions.

They talk about a cure for Prostate Cancer in an earlier press release. Anyone know anything.

The doctor who knows about phytoestrogens in Dr Seth Herbst from Wellington in Florida. Perhaps someone knows him and can gets his comments.
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After some research have some info on Novogen.
Promensil is number 1 Over the Counter drug in OZ after 2years. Number 1 in USA GNC stores.

New drug P081 ( Over The Counter) works well for cholesterol ratios. Works specifically on HDL.

New drug NV06 about to be trialed in USA fo prostate cancer cure. Initial trials indicate cure fo ALL cancers. Apparently also cures prostatic hardness, something which affects 60% of all men.

This is a rule breaker.


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I am new to the fool but not to medicine.
Novogen is a fascinating company. It is a mixture of hard science good engineering and smoke screens.
Isoflavins or plant oestrogens have some effect in both menopause and prostatic cancer however it could not be called impressive in any way. In my experience "synthetic" hormone replacement is far superior in reducing the symptoms of menopause and there is virtualy nothing to compare when talking about osteoporosis and heart disease. God knows what isoflavins do with breast cancer. It is also not logical to argue that isoflavins are "natural" and scripted hrt is not. One is derived from plant products and the other is either produced from animals or copied. This does not mean that I write Novogen off. The public is quite illogical. There will always be a demand for percieved natural products. As far as they go Novogen has well produced and researched products.
Viva Le Smokescreen
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I am new to the fool but not to medicine.
Novogen is a fascinating company. It is a mixture of hard science good engineering and smoke screens.
Isoflavins or plant oestrogens have some effect in both menopause and prostatic cancer however it could not be called
impressive in any way. In my experience "synthetic" hormone replacement is far superior in reducing the symptoms of
menopause and there is virtualy nothing to compare when talking about osteoporosis and heart disease. God knows what
isoflavins do with breast cancer. It is also not logical to argue that isoflavins are "natural" and scripted hrt is not. One is
derived from plant products and the other is either produced from animals or copied. This does not mean that I write Novogen
off. The public is quite illogical. There will always be a demand for percieved natural products. As far as they go Novogen
has well produced and researched products.
Viva Le Smokescreen


Hi bramo, and welcome to the wonderful world of fools. On both this board and the Novogen board we have been seeking a doctors opinion on this company, so thank you for providing us with one.

Your points are interesting........ hard science, good engineering and smoke screens. The first two I understand, but not quite sure what you mean by the last. Do you get the impression that they are somehow concealing something, or that perhaps the OTC products that they are already marketing are of no real benefit except as a placebo effect? The public is often "illogical" but would they really be buying these OTC products in such increasing numbers if they were having no effect

In your experience of comparing Novogen products with "synthetic" hormone replacement, roughly how many patients were involved,over what period of time, and how effective was the Novogen product?

Are you familiar with any of the many other areas that Novogen are researching in, namely in the area of synthetic versions of the natural compounds that they intend to clinically trial?

They have a long list of research areas including P-081 for cholesterol ,NV-06 for a wide range of cancers including prostate, breast,large bowel, melanoma and leukaemia, NV-04 a cardiovascular drug, and NV-07 an anti-inflammatory drug. What do you make of their press release statements regarding progress so far,(you can find them at their web site www.novogen.com ).

You refer to isoflavins and Novogen talk about isoflavones, are they the same thing?

And finally, from the point of view of earnings potential. If successful in trials, this company seems to me to have enormous prospects of making money in any one of their fields of research, but to have so many prospects in just one company is truly remarkable..........smoke screen or a good solid future,....what do you think?

Thats a bunch of questions for you (or any other of our health experts) to address, and I thank you in anticipation of your reply.

Fool on

Applefoot

PS. Don't forget, there is now also a dedicated Novogen board, so maybe check out both.



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Applefoot wrote:
The public is often "illogical" but would they really be buying these OTC products in such increasing numbers if they were having no effect

As a new fool and a medic I can say that the general public buys a lot of products (e.g. naturopathic, homeopathic)(?Billions each year in Australia) most of which have no proven effects scientifically - I am not saying that some of them dont work just dont think that because people buy them they work
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Dear Bramo
I would be interested to hear where you found your data on lack of effect of isoflavones in menopause, prostatic cancer and breast cancer. I have spent some time looking at the science and have invested in the company based on my findings.. For me these results are impressive.

Isoflavones are given to some Australian men with prostatic cancer. Stephens F Phtoestrogens and prostate cancer: possible preventitve role. Medical Journal of Australia, Vol 167, August 4, 1997 pp138-140. My father a GP has been cured of his prostatic cance by taking large doses of isoflavones. I know of a number other men who have has a similar experience.
On the breast cancer side a positive effect of isoflavins has been noted Ingram D et al, 1997 Case-control study of phytoestrogens and breast cancer (Lancet 350(9083) 990-6). This paper concludes tha women with isoflavones in their urine have a significantly less chance of getting breast cancer.

Dr Lisa Nachtingall presented results (multi-center US study) indicating women experienced a significant reduction in menopausal sytoms when taking isoflavones. further details see Novogen web site/press release.

On what is natural. Isoflavones are sold over the counter as a food, HRT (sythesied from pregnant mares urine) and is available only by prescription. Note also risk of increased cancer from HRT.

Hope this is of interest. No smoke screens here. Just science

poorfool2


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Dear me!
We have ruffelled a few feathers in this department.
I'll keep it short.
1. I don't know what being on prescription has got to do with something being natural or synthetic. This must be a new classification that the PBS (government) has thought of.
2. The results to date on breast cancer and prostatic cancer is early and certainly not spectacular. There are various levels of studies that provide different quality of information. The difficult expensive studies of course are the ones that provide the most detailed info. To the scientificaly initiated a "gold standard" study needs to be a double blind cross over study involving many, many thousands of people (actually a third arm would be needed with conventional therapy as such a study would not pass an ethics board.) and occur over a considerable period of time; five years is your basic minimum. Anyhow the general attitude in the scientific and medical community is "ho hum, interesting", "lets see some more info"
3. As for isoflavins curing prostatic cancer. I would first like to note that I am personaly delighted that the author's father is in "remission" and that this coincided with him taking large doses of Isoflavins. From a research viewpoint however when people start talking about "case histories" as a way of backing up their arguement the word RUBBISH!! comes to mind. Don't take my word for it. Ask any person has a biological/scientific background. Never ever listen to case histories when reviewing literature. This has all the validity of one of those diet advertisments on TV. Unfortunately it also exposes "poorfool" to having a significant emotional investment in his/her investment. Remember a "fool" does not fall in love with a particular investment. Its the bottom line that counts.
4. Finaly on the subject of menopausal symtoms (not the serious stuff like heart disease and osteoporosis). As noted in a previous message I have used HRT in many and the novogen product in several dozen. Both work however I have noted that hrt works better and more often. This of course is not a scientific study and am happy to be shot down in flames. Has any one got any papers of head to head treatment of menopausal symtoms showing that isoflavinns work better?

Anyhow I hope that this answers a few questions. I don't expect to turn "poorfool" off his/her investment and don't want to. The company is run by good people one of whom I know personaly. Just don't get the idea that isoflavins are going to save the world. What's more impressive is that they are a very young company pulling in the dollars and managing already to pump that money into some very interesting and hopefully promising investment.

fool on guys and gals
(my last comment on the matter)
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I've been reading the recent posts re: the Novogen product and isoflavones. I introduced Novogen as a possible "Rule Breaker" back in post 431 and since then I've invested a small portion of my portfolio in Novogen.

One of the characteristics of a Rule Breaking Company is that they are in a "new and emerging industry". As a new and emerging industry I don't expect much data to support new products, especially ones challenging traditional medical thinking. In fact, all of Novogen's prescription products are still in the development stage and so little data would be available since they would keep it to themselves!

Reading media statements and reports from Novogen, it appears the development of their NV-06 and NV-04 cancer treating and cardiovascular drugs is going well. This is where I believe the future of the Company lies and is the reason I invested.

One sobering thought :- not all Rule Breakers do well, i.e., "Faker Breakers". I believe Novogen has the making of a Rule Breaker, but I can't prove it.

Remember, there is a Novogen message board. Come visit it!

Brett
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I get somewhat tired of people who talk down alternatives to conventional medicine due to a lack of evidence.
Not to say that there are not ineffective products that are marketed - there are.
But many times when people claim that there is no research they have not looked at what is available. They rely on the medical establishment to tell them.
The medical establishment is influenced strongly by the companies that provide products and research funds.
Often companies that are involved in natural remedy approaches cannot afford the costs involved in high quality research.
As an example I know that pharmaceutical companies are looking for powerful sun screen ingredients. I also know that a very effective 50+ sunscreen was discovered in sea coral. The problem is that there is no way to protect the product by patent. Therefore that product will never be released to the market.
Some thoughts in relation to Novogen.
1. People always buy what the like. They like what provides them with a perceived benefit. In the long run if they don't benefit they stop buying.
2. Marketing is a powerful way to effect perceived benefit. Maybe this relates to the smokescreen.
3. Can they protect their products from competition.
4. Antagonism from competitive medical and pharmaceutical companies and their influence on the medical profession shoul never be under estimated.
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djkellyoz:
But many times when people claim that there is no research they have not looked at what is available. They rely on the medical establishment to tell them.

True. Problem for Novogen is that even doctors claim there is no (proper)research. My neighbour, a family doctor recently went to a gynecology day and the specialists said Promensil caused no significant effect compared to the pacebo. That is very very old news. In the mean time Novogen has long proved that this ambiguous result came because of vegetarians in the test who eat a lot of soy. Eating a lot of soy does have a similar effect to taking Promensil. Later tests have since proved that there is a significant effect. Novogen has to find an affordable way to get through to medical establishment. Then they can tell the "people".

Often companies that are involved in natural remedy approaches cannot afford the costs involved in high quality research.

I think the research done by Novogen (and independant studies) are of high quality. The quantity could be higher, I mean larger tests would be more impressive, but I suppose that's where the cost-factor comes in. A larger test would most probably have shown a significant effect of Promensil even with vegetarians in the test group. Percentage-wise you need more positives to make it significant in a small test.


Can they protect their products from competition.

They cannot prevent that other companies make red clover extracts. So far they have the (patented) technology to do it properly. They are ahead of this market in research and are in the best position to convince doctors. But once they are successful, the big boys (pharmaceutical companies) will jump in and give them a hard time.

The phenolic hormones however are discovered by Novogen and well protected by patents. If (when) phenolic hormones are proven to work, Novogen will most probably enter a licencing deal or partnership to market these products. This success may in turn rub off on the isoflavones. Perhaps only then medical establishment will fully realize that Novogen knows what it is doing and start prescribing isoflavones to prevent getting into the situation where drugs are needed.

I hope this is of use to you. I am going to copy your message to the Novogen board. (always looking for copy)
eveline
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