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Obviously, this doesn't take into account one of the 1,000,000 geopolitical surprises hiding in the basement

Not just geopolitcal issues.
It also doesn't take into account that real estate gains/losses are also very local. For instance, I saw a WARN notice the other day that they are going to be laying off over 700 people from a factory in Newton, IA (pop about 15k) that employs about 800. The notice also said they may be shutting it down completely. My guess is that there will be losses, not gains in Newton in 2022. Of course, to average out to 15% gains nationwide, I'm sure that there will be other localities that will have 25% gains.

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