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No. of Recommendations: 3
Ok.

Lots of activity this week.
Why?

I didn't really plan it, but it just so happened that a lot of SPACs recently completed the SPAC process and started trading under their new tickers, and finally had their first public ER/CCs.

These were companies I was interested in earlier, but dubious on because of the limited info.
Similarly, I found some smaller companies that are new or somewhat recent IPOs and/or just did a compelling business combination.

All in all, I went from largely SPG & Cash only, to adding (7) new companies.
These allocations are all very small/starter level.
These companies still have much to prove.
Two of them have ERs on Monday (ONDS and SMFR) and may plummet. If the report is good, and it plummets, then I am happy to lower my cost basis and add. If report is crap and future not what I thought it would be, or mgmt really sucks on a CC (looking at you ZUO) then I may cut bait and take the small loss to port and move on.

My 55% or so port gains this year have given me the flexibility to try some new positions.
While I still expect a market implosion, I want to continue a large cash position for now, and I likely stay away from the much larger ($10-20-50-100b mkt cap) growth companies, which I feel will be disproportionately punished in any market drawdown, as we saw in March and May.

Not that my newer companies won't get their teeth kicked in via a market downturn...they probably will...but being just starter positions, I can only be hurt so much, and these aren't going to $0.

To sum up, the plan is:
1. validate some newer/smaller port stocks for future.
2. starter positions for now, adding opportunistically or on meaningful news / future results.
3. keep cash high
4. hope SPG keeps doing that up and to the right thing.
5. Deploy cash only in truly meaningful drawdowns, either as trading blocks (champ term) or to start long-term positions in companies I like, such as TTD or UPST, if the price is enticing.

Recent Moves:

Sold
Took 20% gain on UPST from about $160's to $200 today. Yeah yeah...will likely regret this exit, too. Just can't justify 3-day gains that high and not expect pullback. Plus, that isn't even counting the people that were at $135 before UPST ER and who were at $120, like, last week.
I have only ever made money on UPST. I should have made a whole lot more though. I am ok with that.

Bought
SOFI pre and post-ER.
What they do - Trading, loans, and Galileo (dig banking/payment processing platform). Future bank.
About a 2% allocation. Hoping around $15 is floor. On a quick rebound, I may trim part of it. My only hesitancy with SOFI is that the mkt cap is over $10b and there is no moat. Their P/S for 2021 FY is about 12, so not exactly expensive for the high-growth numbers.

SMFR pre ER.
What they do - AI data platform for healthcare.
1% allocation.
SPACs start at $10, and this is about $11.25 or so.
Allegedly this is tracking to a 10 P/S for FY 2021.

ONDS pre ER, but recently bought American Robotics (drones) which was my catalyst for buying.
1% allocation
What they do - commercial space, specialized network and drone operations for data collection.
This was a regular IPO about $6 in Dec 2020. Now $7-8 range lately.
This is more story/potential than current revenue as this is a new space.
They are the only FAA-approved autonomous drone beyond line-of-sight.
Currently decent partnership with Siemens. Some thought that Infrastructure bill will benefit Siemens and them.

STEM pre ER, did not buy more yet, as a bit pricey.
1% allocation
Leader in battery storage/energy space.
Secret sauce is Athena, their AI-based software.
Recurring revenue kicks in as installations are completed, and these are expected to be loooong-term contracts as this is essentially an energy play.
The trick here is that 20-30% of rev is Q3 and 50-60% of Q4, so about 80% total.
So really the catalysts are ongoing news/deals/contract wins and then getting thru Q3, meeting the expectations, and hitting their guidance and hopefully raising.
They expect to do about $150m this FY and are about $3b mkt cap, so that would be 20 P/S. In theory, it has a long-term bright outlook, but currently it falls into the "prove it" category for next 3 months.

Simon SPAC - SPGS
.5% allocation
I don't mind just parking cash here, but it isn't terribly liquid.
Rumor said Simon may use SPAC to buy Kastle, who specializes in Commercial security solutions. Makes a lot of sense for Commercial REIT and given back-to-office trend and Infrastructure bill.
But just a rumor at moment.

GNPK aka Redwire
.5% allocation
Still a SPAC, but de-SPAC process should be complete in Sept.
Shortly after, will trade as RDW. Likely will also immediately use SPAC cash for more M&A.
Not big margins.
Mix of established and newer space companies. A pure-play Space holding company.
Already EBIDTA profitable and P/S is reasonable from what I can tell.
I may up it a bit more. Unclear when a first ER might be.

VRAR aka The Glimpse Group
1% allocation.
$80m mkt cap...little guy.
Recently IPOd.
Pure-play VR AR holding company. This space is ripe for growth and could be acquisition target.
pre-announced some numbers...small base but growth was good.
Not clear if/when they will hold first public ER.


So I am into AI, biotech, VR/AR, Space, Alternative Energy, Drones/data, and digital banking.
Hey...guess I am back to being a tech dreamer after all.


Dreamer


ps...don't want 10+ stocks, but 2 I would buy lower are ABCL and UPST, both up huge today.
psii...doesn't mean I don't think TTD, SNOW, DDOG, CRWD and others aren't great companies, but feel they have more potential downside risk over next 12 months from current elevated prices/multiples. But, hey, I have been wrong since April 2020.
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