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OK, so it's been a year.

On 2/10/2005, HOV was at $56.50

On 2/10/2006, HOV is at $44.62

Looks like it peaked at $70-something in July.

I think that avoiding it was a good idea. The run up between February and July was probably just momentum. I think that as the housing “bubble” deflates, HOV will continue to go down.

I'm still not sure about the cash flow stuff. I noticed that other companies like CAT have funny cash flows which also probably includes the company financing their customers.

I'm sure that HOV is a fine company but housing is on the wane. And, by the way, I don't think there's a bubble that's going to burst; just an inflated something that's going to deflate.

I think that real estate will have more days on the market and will sell for a bit less than the asking price as opposed to the rapid turnover and price premiums we've seen lately.

Meanwhile, recently, I've bought some MOT and GILD. MOT makes cell phones and GILD makes drugs for all sorts of nasty things like HIV and Hepatitus B or C.

Andy

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