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No. of Recommendations: 2
OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003? Will the people who bought and held be rich? Will we be broke as heck?

I suspect most on this board are not focused on quarter to quarter and year to year results. And we are not worried about being 'suddenly rich' or 'suddenly poor' with diversified portfolios.

What is important is LONG TERM performance. WHo knows, the market might be up all year, and drop to a 3% gain by next Dec 31. Who cares? (other than all the Wall STreet analysts and their incessant focus on 'results'). I'm more concerned with the averages moving up consistently year after year, but not especially worried about any specific 'date' as the milestone for determining market performance.

It is long term value, long term growth of companies and industry and economy.

Yes, I'm sure we would all like to see X% increase, each and every year without fail, where X is a large number, in real terms (after inflation). And we all know that over the long term, it is the value of companies that determine the stock price, and the value of companies depends upon them growing their income per share, after all the accounting gimmicks have been removed.

With several percent shifts in less than a week, picking a 'date' each year to determine long term trends seems silly to me.

So throw a dart at the wall. If you focus only on year to year, quarter to quarter type results, then you are falling into the WS traders ares of so-called, sell, flip, tout, sell short, and take advantage of momentary ups/downs in the market...which few do successfully.


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