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No. of Recommendations: 8
Okay NN,

First, my system which was described on this board in this post (see link below) gives both buy signals and sell signals. The sell signals can also be used to buy LEAP puts or sell short.

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16230051

When a stock rises 3% above it's 50 day EMA, has a rising RSI (over the past 30 days), has a positive MACD, and has volume 40% above the ADV, and all these things occur on the same day, then it is a buy signal. When a stock that has been above the 50 day EMA for awhile drops 3% below the 50 day EMA, has a negative MACD, a declining RSI, and still has volume 40% above the average daily volume, then that is a sell short signal (note the sell signals come from my stopp loss points on my buys).

Both OPWV and BEAS have declined significantly over the past year. Let's look at BEAS.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=beas&d=c&k=c3&t=1y&a=m26-12-9%2Cr14%2Cv&p=e50&l=on&z=m&q=l

Here's the daily prices:
http://table.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=beas&g=d

Using my system, I would have shorted on Feb 17th at approximately $59.00/share when the volume was over 17 million shares. Using my stop loss criteria of 12%, I would have bought to cover on Feb 14th at 54.81 (a 7% gain). I would have shorted again on Feb 22 at about 42.00, and would have been stopped out (bought to cover) on March 13 at 33.80 (a 20% gain). I would have shorted again on March 28 at about 30, and I would have been stopped out on April 5th at 23.16 ( a 23% gain).

During April, May and June, BEAS crept back over the 50 day EMA on several occasions, but at no time did it meet all four criteria (3% over 50 day EMA, positive MACD, Rising RSI, and 40% above ADV) on the same day. So I would not have bought BEAS during this period.

However, on Jun 14 20 million shares traded and all the conditions signaled a short opportunity at (this would have been intraday at around 31.00). Following my standard stop loss strategy, I would have covered on Jul 30 at 22.29 for a 21% gain.

I would have shorted again on Aug 8 when there was 21 million sahres traded. My short would have been at about $20. I would have been stopped out on Aug 22nd at 17.30 ( a 14% gain). Again on Sep 6th I would have shorted at 13.50, and would have covered on Sep 24th at 11.52, a 15% gain.

In late Sept, the stock started rising.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BEAS&d=c&k=c3&a=m26-12-9,r14,v&p=e50&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l

On Nov 8th, BEAS met all the criteria to purchase, and I would have bought near the close of the trading day at about $15.00. I would have set a stop loss at 13.20. When the stock rose to 18.04 on Nov 27th, my stop loss would have been raised to 15.88 (12% below the high). I would have been stopped out on Dec 3rd at 15.88 (the actual low of the day) for a 6 % gain.

As of right now, I'd be out of BEAS, waiting for a buy or sell short signal, though I doubt I would consider short sell at these levels.

So, you see I would have traded BEAS several times, all at small gains during the year.

NukeJohn


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