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No. of Recommendations: 7
Hi KP,

I am usually optimistic, but this analyst seemed to make some good, well reasoned points. I found it thought provoking, if not disturbing. It was reminiscent of Augieboo's recent post, which won post of the day recently, on Where We Went Wrong.

The complex inter-relationships that co-exist between telcos & carriers(AT & T & Worldcom, in the US), the systems provisioners(Lucent & Nortel) & the components manufacturers(JDSU & Avanex), financiers & venture capitalists, the public markets, boom/bust cycles, can be difficult to disentangle. But I think it is important to do so, especially to think in terms of the most important links in the chain, who is most & least vulnerable, which are the best stocks, etc.

Augieboo's post was a Godsend in this regard(sorry, I don't have link handy, but it was linked here within the last week). I believe Bruce Brown & PaulPhilip have been doing a lot of thinking out loud. If it is not too much of a gross oversimplification of their respective & collective positions, a lot of the companies in this space got ahead of themselves, & borrowed & bought equipment before they had a clear idea of what kind of services need evolve & be developed to pay for all this expansion. Kind of like shooting an ambitious & hugely expensive movie without having a script rewrite & storyboards nailed down, before going into production :^).

Unfortunately for me, some of my favorite companies/stocks are NGN players & arms dealers in this space(Juniper, Sycamore, Broadcom), & could be adversely affected bigtime if the whole "ecosytem" gets lit up & many companies go busto in the next 1-2 years. So I am reassesing the risk I am taking on by trying to establish LTB & H postions in these companies.

At $10 a share, I think SCMR will be worth substantially more than it is now in 5-10 yearsm if they are still in business, which, again, I think is highly likely. Vinod Khosla, the legendary NGN VC & guru(backed JNPR, RBAK & CORV, I think, as well as being co-founder of SUNW), stated that the optical market is appalingly oversaturated, & as many as 90-95% of them might end up being roadkill(network-kill, photon-kill? :^). Yet he also said that the oppurtunity for those that make it to the mountain top could be historically unprecedented, & this space might yield the first trillion dollar market cap.

I will continue to think about these systemic & strategic matters, & pass anything I consider important along to the board, as well as some of the more cogent & penetrating insights that crop up on the GG, TR & New Paradigm boards. Here is the aforementioned link, by Ravi Suria(there is a Part II link at the end)...

I know I found this link from one of the boards mentioned immediately above, but, alas, I just bookmarked the article proper, & not where I found it, so I can't give proper attribution for the heads up. Thanx anyway, if you are out there.

Benjamin- consider me on the installment plan, in paying back my debt to this great board for all I have learned here. With the great cast of thinkers & characters that have been inspired by Erick's leadership & example, & attracted here, he doesn't have to post a hundred times a day here to keep the flame burning bright & carry on the tradition of excellence. He just needs to be like Reggie Jackson on those great Yankees teams- the STRAW THAT STIRS THE DRINK!! :^)

Just his presence is all the MOJO I need to continue to draw from the deep wellsprings here.

t2 out, for tonight- have a good weekend all, & heres to hoping Q2 is a bit better than the last one.
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