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No. of Recommendations: 4
I bought some today.
Saw this hyped by Ophir on Twitter months ago.
This one is a sub-$300m market cap.
Taking a 1% allocation, but leveraging autonomous drones for commercial use has almost unlimited applications. I think the downside in next 6-9 months is probably their low around $6, so 25% downside risk, while the upside is 2-3x to 10x depending on contracts won and announced moving forward.

Unlike my recent buys, I think I am back in the long-term view here. Long-term for me being the 6-9-12 months. Let's see if this thesis plays out.

Catalyst - recently got approved their acquisition of American Robotics:

"American Robotics brings together best-in-class IP, a Robot-as-a-Service business model, and its historic FAA approvals to deliver an industrial drone service capable of unlocking the $100 billion commercial drone market. Unlike other drone technology, American Robotics’ Scout System™ provides an unmatched level of autonomy, safety, and analytics with its industrial-grade design and advanced, AI-powered software. The Scout System™ is the ultimate data gathering and processing solution at the edge of industrial field area networks which can be integrated into a mission-critical wireless network powered by Ondas’ FullMAX technology. American Robotics’ highly automated drones are capable of conducting up to 20 automated flights per day without having a single pilot or visual observer on the ground.

In April 2021, Ondas advanced American Robotics a $2 million loan in order to begin scaling their customer support and sales organization, leveraging their recent first-of-a-kind FAA approval for automated drones. These efforts have already begun to show success. On July 8, 2021, Stockpile Reports, a data solutions provider to the bulk materials industry serving over 300 companies in 48 countries, selected the Scout System™ to build out its automated drone program. The bulk materials industry is a large industrial market with more than 10,000 sand and gravel mines and more than 3,000 ready mix and asphalt plants in the U.S. alone. Then, on July 14, 2021, American Robotics announced that it received a purchase order from a Fortune 100 oil and gas company for the Scout System enabling American Robotics to expand into its next major industrial market. The oil & gas industry represents a new major market for American Robotics with more than 90,000 oil and gas wells currently in the U.S. and over 500,000 miles of pipeline that require constant monitoring and inspection."

"Their approach worked, but what will this first-mover in the automated commercial drone space do to establish itself in the Google and Tesla category and not go the way of the Ford Edsel? Mozer thinks he knows.
“One of the biggest values that we provide and we’ll continue to grow with all this high-resolution data, now we can begin producing and offering new analytics features again because that’s what this is about,” he said. “This is about collecting data, but more importantly analyzing that data”.
Other drone companies could fly in the slipstream of American Robotics, but what sets the company apart is the ability to look for other nuggets under the golden ticket that it unlocked for the commercial drone industry. The company is in it for the long haul.
Mozer imagines it as “thousands of systems out there operating constantly every day, capturing petabytes of ultra-high-resolution, two-dimensional, three-dimensional data, what efficiencies does it unlock? What things can we do that we can’t do today? I don’t think anyone knows the full extent of that answer.”
What he does know is that it takes a bucket load of perseverance to make sure his company is not taking a short road trip in a Ford Edsel.
“Entrepreneurship is insane perseverance in the face of constant rejection, and I think that’s the entrepreneur’s version of courage,” Mozer said. “Just never really give up. People say it all the time, but that’s what it takes.”"

IoT play

“Ondas has been focused on driving market adoption of its mission-critical IoT (MC-IoT) technology across industrial and government markets with an initial focus on the large North American Rail markets”, said Eric Brock, Chairman and CEO of Ondas Holdings Inc. “Our success here with the Class 1 Railroads is allowing for new adoption outside of North America. Rail operators in Europe face many of the same challenges as our Class 1 rail customers. We look forward to working closely with this customer by providing crucial new data capacity and network flexibility through our next-generation FullMAX industrial wireless platform.”

Mr. Brock concluded, “Ondas’ FullMAX MC-IoT technology is key to unlocking the high performance and secure industrial networks of the future by optimizing valuable spectrum assets already available to our customers.”

Data-intensive edge technologies are expanding in scope and number, creating the need for new broadband private wireless data networks in European rail markets. The adoption of more intelligent rail systems cannot be met by the legacy GSMR networks in Europe or by the future transition to 5G technologies. New rail applications require highly reliable data links over very long range and wide field areas. 5G networks are purposely designed for high downstream data capacity over very short range and don’t meet many of the mission-critical requirements. Furthermore, ubiquitous 5G networks will take years or even decades to implement across the territory of a railroad. Meanwhile, just as in North America, European railroad infrastructure companies control blocks of low frequency, highly capable performing radio spectrum assets which are underutilized by legacy narrowband wireless technologies. Ondas’ FullMAX software-defined wireless platform is designed to unlock the full capability of this existing spectrum and provide much higher data network capacity, performance and reliability.

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