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One factor we need to consider (many hedge fund managers do) is the landscape of our elected officials. I do not want to make this a political dog fight; that is clearly not my intention. The history of midterm elections have suggested a bounce in the market after they happen.

If after the election, we get a bounce, this could be a catalyst for a recovery which suggests a bottom in Q3 or Q4 of 2022. 1Q22 GDP came in at -1.6% final; 2Q22 GDP guestimates are near zero or lower which suggests an official recession is underway which would likely cause the FED to pause on the rates; maybe not so on QT.

On the other hand, 3Q22 results for our SaaS companies may just hiccup which would send the market into a serious further correction and cancel the effect of the midterm election factor. The hiccup suggestion is as a result of many CC CFO's clearing their throats when asked about guidance.

We'll have to wait and see, and so I keep telling myself that the US stock market has never NOT recovered from a depression, recession or a correction.

FP
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