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One of the things which puzzles me about the Retirement Investing and Retire Early Home Page boards is some of the advice which they give to newcomers. Now it is perfectly reasonable that they want new people not to lose money, I have no problem with that at all. Advice to buy VTSMX is perfectly reasonable. On the other hand, as lots of people will say, Mr Market isn't always rational.
Firstly, I would suggest that newcomers read the Mechanical Investing Board and the Kua'aina Partners boards here at the Fool. It seems quite clear that there are patterns in the market that can be used to increase gains. There are a number of posts about this by Zeelotes in the past few weeks. One useful indicator is whether the current price of the S&P 500 is greater than its moving average price for the past 200 days.
Secondly, Whitney Tilson tells us, in his 10/8/2004 column in the Fool, how to find stocks that are near their yearly lows. Using the site http://finance.yahoo.com, you can find lots of stock prices. Looking at JPM (J.P.Morgan), for example, you will find that around 30/9/2002 a share of JPM sold for a bit over $15. It's now about $38 and the dividend is $1.36 a year. General Dynamics is another stock that doubled over a period of about 18 months. I don't know if this is called market timing but it is quite profitable.
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