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One weakness of 4% early withdrawal rate types of strategies is that they encourage and signal retirement at the height of stock market booms, when a reversal may be imminent.

That's a good point, especially now that fewer people are getting a pension to dampen the effect of ups & downs on their portfolio. It's good to have some cash on hand to take advantage of the stock price lows, and also to avoid "having" to sell at the low points ad on the way down.
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