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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/apple-aapl-earnings-q1-2021....

So much for the law of large numbers....

tecmo
...
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First, anything Apple is definitely not "OT" for the Berkshire board. It's one of our largest businesses.



So much for the law of large numbers....


Are you sure? For TTM, revenue only grew 5.5%. Worse yet, net income only grew 3.9%...so margins are declining. iPhone revenue is also declining, and, yes, iPhone is still ultimately the engine that pulls the Apple train.

Selling for about 34X current run-rate eps. I love Apple, but AAPL only at prices about half this level.


p.s. For Apple, given variability of product releases and release dates, one should use--at a minimum--year-over-year comparisons, not quarter-over-quarter.

p.p.s. One factor mitigating the very poor eps growth TTM is the unusually late release of iPhone this year, which did not come out during the reported quarter...as it always has in the past. We'll not know until next quarter how much that mattered; the y-o-y comparison after next quarter will give a truer look at the state of Apple...though even that will be somewhat skewed, as the comp from the prior year will be "artificially" reduced, given that in that year, the first few weeks of sales after the new iPhone release will not have been in that quarter/year.
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First, anything Apple is definitely not "OT" for the Berkshire board. It's one of our largest businesses.



So much for the law of large numbers....


Are you sure? For TTM, revenue only grew 5.5%. Worse yet, net income only grew 3.9%...so margins are declining. iPhone revenue is also declining, and, yes, iPhone is still ultimately the engine that pulls the Apple train.

Selling for about 34X current run-rate eps. I love Apple, but AAPL only at prices about half this level.


p.s. For Apple, given variability of product releases and release dates, one should use--at a minimum--year-over-year comparisons, not quarter-over-quarter.

p.p.s. One factor mitigating the very poor eps growth TTM is the unusually late release of iPhone this year, which did not come out during the reported quarter...as it always has in the past. We'll not know until next quarter how much that mattered; the y-o-y comparison after next quarter will give a truer look at the state of Apple...though even that will be somewhat skewed, as the comp from the prior year will be "artificially" reduced, given that in that year, the first few weeks of sales after the new iPhone release will not have been in that quarter/year.



Yeah...forget all of that. Quite an embarrassment: I haven't been following AAPl closely lately because of its lofty valuation...and when I saw the OP, looked up Apple's earnings release on their website...but looked at last quarter's numbers :(
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The law of large numbers is the one about the average of observations approaching the true mean as sample size grows.

Pretty soon we'll have a very good idea of Apple's average revenue per quarter!

Jim
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"Pretty soon we'll have a very good idea of Apple's average revenue per quarter!"


Could be $80b this coming quarter which would be up from around $60b a year ago. They have been supply constrained and things are more in balance. The growth across all segments was strong.
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The law of large numbers is the one about the average of observations approaching the true mean as sample size grows.


On behalf of all people with mathematical and statistical training, thank you for this correction.

BTW, there are alternative formulations for the limits to growth that have not already been taken: trees don’t grow to the sky being perhaps the most common. (Although I prefer a different translation of this German saying: Trees can’t reach the sky.)

You could also say that a company can’t be bigger than the whole economy, or that people aren’t going to own two iphones each or have two Netflix accounts, or that monopoly laws restrict how big a company can get, or that big companies become overly bureaucratic and end up leaving opportunities for new companies to eat their lunch.

Now, what proportion of tosses of two fair dice will give you snake eyes (two ones)? With 100 tosses, you may well not get a single occurrence, but as you repeat the experiment more and more times, by __________________*, you will get a proportion that is closer and closer to 1 in 36. Fill in the blank...
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