Imagine the horror as my finger pressed the mouse today and triggered the buy order for EBAY.I couldn't help myself, 6 times free cash flow, no debt, $3B+ cash, dominant online auction, paypal (more accounts than American Express), just bought competition Bill me Later, Half.com, Rent.com, Shopping.com, StubHub, Skype.The little guy on my left shoulder, the one that still exults with pride for completely avoiding the dotcom meltdown, was absolutely disgusted with the choice and stands before you with shame.The other little guy kept whispering in my ear "6 X FCF, huge margins, dominant position and network effect, internet sales may not fall off the cliff like Mr Market has concluded"
Another value investor here who is seriously looking at this one but have not clicked the mouse yet.sw
Good Lord, what's next? Google...?
Good Lord, what's next? Google...?Not in my books.Actually I would almost consider a very long term long Ebay / short Google position.But how about Cisco as a value play? Who'd a thunk it.Jim
Actually, why not Google?Take away the cash equivalents of 14B and Google is available for 10 times the cash flow.As a search company, I agree that Google doesn't have a long lasting moat. However, consider Google as a platform company. Google now runs 5% of all the websites http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2008/10/29/october_2008_we...This is impressive considering that Google doesn't sell its websever software. These are the sites Google hosts for its own services or on behalf of its users (like Blogger).Check out Google Apps (500,000 business customers already using it, how much of MS office franchise will move over?), Google App Engine (Application hosting) and Android (mobile phone platform).A competitor to google will have to outdo it not only in innovation but also in infrastructure.Regards,SSling
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