http://www.nytimes.com/2003/05/14/education/14COLL.htmlOf course, the kids are convinced good times are just around the corner. I still fail to see where the jobs will be: lots of insurance salesmen (and women). Good to see medical school applications up: been too hard work for most when they could get better paid for doing less in business and compuers.
Loki: Grad school applications always spike during hard times. Like in the late 80's when a certain scruffy, downtrodden kid from the concrete jungle I call Philadelphia entered law school. When there are no jobs, grad school is a good option since you can defer your ever-mounting student loans until even later.Splotto
In these discussions, we should keep in mind the futility of predicting macroeconomic variables like deflation and unemployment. I remember a book a few years ago that graded the world's major economies. Italy got an 'F', with the economist-authors predicting economic disaster. Two years after the book came out, when I read it, Italy was booming.Nick
>>When there are no jobs, grad school is a good option since you can defer your ever-mounting student loans until even later.Yes, and grad school also becomes effectively cheaper, as the opportunity costs are lower. You always have to do that Lost Income vs. Greater Future Salary analysis.Nick
Re: grad school: My question remains, what jobs will be available? We're all familiar with automation taking away blue collar jobs. But computerization threatens white collar jobs. Most of the jobs created in finance during the boom were a mirage. Many of the jobs in computers were really "helper" positions, and as more businesses become self-sufficient, with even executives capable of plugging in the machine and downloading software updates, those jobs become unncessary. And so on.We need teachers. We need nurses. We probably need primary care doctors, especially in "underserved" areas. We will need grunt health care workers for an aging population.I tend to think Kent is optimistic.
Yup!We need teachers. We need nurses. We probably need primary care doctors, especially in "underserved" areas. We will need grunt health care workers for an aging population.I tend to think Kent is optimistic. There's that "famous Lok sense of humor", creeping up on me....LOLKBM (aging, and on the leading cusp of the Boomer Retirement generation)
We need teachers. We need nurses. We probably need primary care doctors, especially in "underserved" areas. We will need grunt health care workers for an aging population.I should point out that we are laying off teachers left and right, that most of the need for teachers comes for populations that are having children, disproportionately the poor and immigrants, and that when it comes to physicians, the reimbursement schedules favor high end interventions and sub-specialists, so with heavier and heavier debts for those attending medical school, primary care is in disfavor and the primary care jobs in rural and urban areas are largely being filled by immigrants.
We need teachers. We need nurses. We probably need primary care doctors, especially in "underserved" areas. We will need grunt health care workers for an aging populationNurses certainly, and the full range of medical support personnel (my sister has done a lot of things, and is currently a medical transcriptionist in the midwest - very busy).First criterion now would be something that can't be moved offshore, so gardeners, vets, dentists, etc. I talked recently to a 4 year college grad who got frustrated with the job search, and started a carpet cleaning business. Needs to hire an assistant, and will train, and can't find anyone for decent pay, but hard, boring work. I bet he'll find someone this year.
Agreed on not moveable off shore.Still, I just got back from errand running and stopped at a Kroger's (I usually go to a locally owned super market) and had a long wait at the cash register, because only one was open. I could have done self serve, and probably would have taken less time, even though I haven't bothered to learn how. Kroger used to have lots of unionized clerks running the registers. My local place hires part time college students.A lot of my students have put themselves through college (and condoms) waiting tables. Tips, especially upscale, mount up. Not eating out, especially up scale, is an easy place to save money in hard times.The actual unemployment rate is, of course, much higher than reported (counting discouraged workers and the hard core unemployable or unwilling to work). Then there are all those working part time who want to work full time.I'lll bet your self-employed carpet cleaner doesn't have health insurance. There would be a lot more opportunity for would-be entrepreneurs if affordable heath care was available.
There would be a lot more opportunity for would-be entrepreneurs if affordable heath care was available.No doubt! Which leads me to expect that any deflationary scenario will also include an unholy mix of inflation in certain critical services, health care being the first that comes to mind.
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