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OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003? Will the people who bought and held be rich? Will we be broke as heck?
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OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003? Will the people who bought and held be rich? Will we be broke as heck?


I suspect most on this board are not focused on quarter to quarter and year to year results. And we are not worried about being 'suddenly rich' or 'suddenly poor' with diversified portfolios.

What is important is LONG TERM performance. WHo knows, the market might be up all year, and drop to a 3% gain by next Dec 31. Who cares? (other than all the Wall STreet analysts and their incessant focus on 'results'). I'm more concerned with the averages moving up consistently year after year, but not especially worried about any specific 'date' as the milestone for determining market performance.

It is long term value, long term growth of companies and industry and economy.

Yes, I'm sure we would all like to see X% increase, each and every year without fail, where X is a large number, in real terms (after inflation). And we all know that over the long term, it is the value of companies that determine the stock price, and the value of companies depends upon them growing their income per share, after all the accounting gimmicks have been removed.

With several percent shifts in less than a week, picking a 'date' each year to determine long term trends seems silly to me.

So throw a dart at the wall. If you focus only on year to year, quarter to quarter type results, then you are falling into the WS traders ares of so-called expertise....buy, sell, flip, tout, sell short, and take advantage of momentary ups/downs in the market...which few do successfully.

T



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OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003?

I predict that the stock market will still exist by the end of 2003.
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JP Morgan said it best, "I know exactly what the stock market is going to do -- it's going to fluctuate." I can't do any better. All I can add is: have a backtested, simple investment plan and stick to it. Leave the prognosticating to the fools.

-dr.nonlinear-
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I predict a fourth straight year of declines in the major indicies. I think it will be between a 20 and 30 percent decline. I was in a cash/bond/mortage fund for all of 2002 and made 6.5% I'm sticking with it until the S&P breaks its current downtrend.
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OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003? Will the people who bought and held be rich? Will we be broke as heck?

Dow 5700, Nasdaq 875.

At least one major bank will collapse, or be gobbled up at firesale prices, due to South American exposure.

At least one of the 4 horsemen of technology will begin paying a dividend [assuming we dont count Intel's current measley payment].

Personal bankrupty filings will once again set new, all time high records.

Interest rates will be at exactly the same level as today.

Saddam Hussein will agree to go into a wealthy exile prior to the fall of Iraq, perhaps even prior to a land invasion.

A nuclear "dirty bomb" will be set off by Al-Queda somewhere in the world, but most likely in the U.S.

Great Brittain will endure a terrorist attack of 9/11 magnitude.

The U.S. will begin to experience suicide/homicide bombings similar to that of Israel, but not as frequently.

President Bush's popularity will plummet, never to recover.

Good companies with sound management will continue to make money.

Golfwaymore




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They should call you depresswaymore. I'm not saying i disagree with most of your predictions, although i think we will have a small gain in the dow (9000?) and nas will be around 1500.

2828
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They should call you depresswaymore. I'm not saying i disagree with most of your predictions, although i think we will have a small gain in the dow (9000?) and nas will be around 1500.

I learned early on that aiming low with expectations is the best defense against disappointment and loss.

My financial predictions shouldnt be depressing if one has a highly diversified portfolio into several asset classes and provided they are invested for the long term. I actually think there is a ton of money to be made during the turbulent times we're in.

As for my geo-political predictions, I guess we just have to hope we get lucky.

Golfwaymore


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Then would it be prudent if you were receiving a lump sum pension to do as stoferi did and maintain a position in cash/bond/mortgage investments? Unfortunately I have to agree with a lot of points you made but do question the 5700 DOW. And I need more education to pick out the "Good companies with sound management will continue to make money" ie the reason for the cash/bond/mortgage question. Jack
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My financial predictions shouldnt be depressing if one has a highly diversified portfolio into several asset classes and provided they are invested for the long term. I actually think there is a ton of money to be made during the turbulent times we're in.


GWM, I'm sure you're familiar with Scott Burns "couch potato" portfolio. Given your views of the coming economic climmate, which I largely agree with, what would the Golfwaymore Couch Potato portfolio look like?

tutone
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OK, so what are your predictions for the stock market by years end 2003? Will the people who bought and held be rich? Will we be broke as heck?

After careful deliberation, my answer is:

No.

(As compared to what they are currently, of course. Galeno and intercst will still be rich, I still will be working on becoming rich, Hocus will still be working on a book.)
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Great Brittain will endure a terrorist attack of 9/11 magnitude.

I don't think so, and here's why.

The major leaders of the most violent set of the most extreme Islamic extremists have made it plain that they WANT a war of the Islamic world versus the non-Islamic world.

After 9/11, the US is in the war (although we persist in maintaining, along with our allies in several Islamic countries, that it's against international terrorism, NOT against Islam). So, another attack against us might be needed for propaganda value, but it is NOT needed to get us into the fight.

After 9/11, Britain joined in, and remains in it. An attack against Britain is not needed to get them into the fight. For propaganda value, it would not be nearly as effective as an attack against the United States.

After Bali, Australia is in it.

India could be drawn into it easily enough - just do another big terrorist assault against practically anything, even poor defenceless farmers, and then allow a couple letters thanking Musharraf for his assistance be captured by the Indian police, preferably after a shoot-out. (Whether Musharraf actually provided any assistance is probably not relevant.)

Russia is in it, for its own reasons.

The biggest industrial powers that are NOT in it are, probably, Germany and Japan. Japan is geographically somewhat isolated from other major non-participants; Germany is right in the middle of a whole pack of them. Also, Germany has been quite vocally opposed to continuing the war anywhere outside Afghanistan - it is a public leader of that opposition. Dragging Germany into the "anti-Islamic" alliance would be a major victory for those supposedly-Islamic extremists who want all-out war.

Therefore, if you are to pick ONE country that is quite likely to have a major terrorist attack, Germany is the best choice (other than the US).
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GWM, I'm sure you're familiar with Scott Burns "couch potato" portfolio. Given your views of the coming economic climmate, which I largely agree with, what would the Golfwaymore Couch Potato portfolio look like?

Mine currently looks like this:

Publicly Traded Individual Stocks, Long Positions 20%

Publicly Traded Individual Stocks/Options, Short Positions 5%

Index Funds 5%

Privately Held Company Stocks 5%

Cash 10%

Low Yield, Secured Debt Instruments 20%

High Yield, Secured Debt Instruments 15%

Secured Small Business Debt Instruments 5%

Residential Raw Land/Real Estate 10%

Commercial Real Estate 5%

Golfwaymore


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