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I read this in the Wall Street journal.

This bull market is the longest in history by far. The S & P has not fallen at least 20% from a high since March 2009. That makes the bull market 3750 days old. Twice as long as the average bull market. Since 2009, stocks, including dividends have quintupled.

The bull market will end, but we can’t know when, or even approximately when.

One good thing is that people are complacent, not enthusiastic about the market. That is important, because irrational exuberance is a sign that the bull market will end.

There are a few small steps one can take. You could buy more international stocks that have a lower valuation, and pay higher dividends. You could also tilt towards higher quality companies. Companies with high, and stable profits, and low debt. You could also buy low volatility stocks.

All these are available through ETFs.

The author does not recommend making major changes.
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There are a few small steps one can take. You could buy more international stocks that have a lower valuation, and pay higher dividends. You could also tilt towards higher quality companies. Companies with high, and stable profits, and low debt. You could also buy low volatility stocks.

All these are available through ETFs


Perhaps I just don't get it but will these investments really help if the US market falls 20%
-International? -Lower valuation? -higher dividends? -Higher quality?

GD_
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Yea, because they may fall 15%, instead of 20%.
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Yea, because they may fall 15%, instead of 20%.

Then I assume this would apply only to a Buy & Hold investor not an MI'er. Right?

GD_
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Perhaps I just don't get it but will these investments really help if the US market falls 20%
-International? -Lower valuation? -higher dividends? -Higher quality?

GD_


Back 2000/2001 when the stock market was in full flounce mode someone on CNBC was talking about putting your money into "defensive stocks." Later on someone else, when asked "What are defensive stocks?" His answer was " 'Defensive stocks' means stocks that haven't tanked yet."
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Yes, that is why it is off topic.

That raises another interesting question?

How many MI'ers are 100% MI?
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How many MI'ers are 100% MI?

Probably not a high percentage, certainly not me. It seems to be more difficult for me to
find the inefficiencies of the market. But I have a fundamental fondness for MI and timing, they
helped me make a profit throughout the 2000 -2002 and minimize my losses during 2008.
Defiantly made me more financially secure but at the cost of a large number of hours.

RAM
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The S & P has not fallen at least 20% from a high since March 2009.

Hmmm. I seem to remember a 20% drop just last fall.

For SPY:
December low/September high
233.76/293.94 = 0.795 = 20.5% drop

DB2
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Hmmm. I seem to remember a 20% drop just last fall.

For SPY:
December low/September high
233.76/293.94 = 0.795 = 20.5% drop

DB2


For that you can blame Jason Zweig who wrote the article.
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Hmmm. I seem to remember a 20% drop just last fall.
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For that you can blame Jason Zweig who wrote the article.


The question is, does a 20% drop "reset the clock"? It may, and as noted in the article 'One good thing is that people are complacent, not enthusiastic about the market.'

DB2
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How many MI'ers are 100% MI?

Probably not too many follow the original "MI" that requires to "follow the screen" not matter what your think is best.

But surely most regular followers of this forum still follow at least partially some version of MI. And understand the pitfalls of Buy & Hold investments after due process of reading annual reports.

GD_
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