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No. of Recommendations: 1
otterrivervalley poses:

is it more important to focus on HOW TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE your annual budgetary needs?

This is such an excellent point. We spend far too much time trying to accurately gauge the return of various asset classes, when really, there are three different areas that will affect your ability to stay retired. 1HappyFool has talked about this before. You need to know with some certainty:

1) the return on your assets;
2) your personal inflation rate;
3) how much money you will need and want to spend.

We spend waaay too much time on 1). I personally am most worried not about 1), but about 2), largely because of health care. I can control 3) to some extent, but it is impacted a lot by 2).

I really wish we had more discussion over whether the future rate of inflation is accurately predicted by the historical evidence. That seems to be a much bigger potential deal-breaker than whether stocks will be returning 6% or 3.5%. Just evidence, I supposed, that I did not live through the Great Depression but did live through the 1970's. Experience certainly biases one's views.

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