This analysis of Tanger Factory Outlets (SKT) seems to be a good explanation of the price erosion over the last couple of years, and a conservative opnion as to at what point is becomes a buy...https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250110-tanger-factory-outl...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249561-wall-street-stupid-...Another negative view of SKT.Perhaps some on-site research is called for?I don't have any SKT malls where I live, but will have a chance to visit one on some upcoming travels. Might other take the opportunity to post their observations? I plan to.JohnLong SKT, short SKT $19 PUTs.
Retail in general getting hit hard. My observations:Personally I find outlet malls less interesting than before. At the very beginning, outlet stores were distribution for seconds, over production. Now you see extremely little of that type of outlet. Outlet got to mean simply alternative format stores. At least it used to be that they had unique stores. For instance the big one in Gilroy, California, had Mikasa, Royal Doulton, but these are gone. They do still have a lot of quality stores, but I think the ratio is dropping and you are getting more of the mom and pop stores selling dubious stuff.Regular malls are closer to town and have some sense of community. They can be repurposed, possibly, to movie theaters, gyms, doctors offices, etc. They are good to walk when it is cold or raining. I do not see how an outlet mall can be repurposed. Also, many a mall is on very valuable property. I wonder how much of a fallback position that is. Probably not much, but it is something. OTOH, malls on the outskirts of medium sized cities probably do not sit on valuable property. And outlet malls almost by design sit on land that was cheap before, and will remain so if the mall fails. So I see outlet malls as having only one play in their playbook. It either works or it does not, and that is that.
For instance the big one in GilroyOutlets have gone premium, the one in Livermore, CA (northern CA) is completely up-scale.
SBNash and others, My thoughts on Tanger and some observations in PA and OH are here in post 84622:https://boards.fool.com/the-7-best-reit39s-to-buy-today-3417...The Brad article is more bullish - as you know but there's a big 'if' on valuation.JoeLong SKT, with short 21 and 22.50P - June expiryCommunity Fool - Ticker Guide OKE, PRLB, MTZ, MMM & ANETclick link for my profile & holdings http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFJambo/info.aspx
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