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No. of Recommendations: 5
Outstanding job Paul,

you have been throwing down POD's with more frequency & regularity than Elton John had #1 hits in the seventies. Thanx for taking the time to expand & elaborate on my questions. That helped clarify things a lot.

I don't know too much about regulation & de-regulation issues in the telco, carrier & service provider space, but I would like to continue the conversation in some areas I am a little more familiar & conversant with, especially the DWDM half of your post.

I would also like to explore in greater depth properties of JUNPR's core router expertise & proprietary & open aspects of JUNOS cross-platform software that they may able to leverage into the always desirable LOCK-IN phenomenon, & possible Gorilladom. I also have some ideas/questions clustered around a still fuzzy & inchoate vortex,, but centered around the possibility that the NGN topologies of the near future may emerge with greater simplicity(?) & less Rube Goldberg-like kludging of myriad, disparate system, & what this will spell for the consolidation of the systems & module provisioner space, & good & bad investment choices.

Also those aspects of DWDM that may be scalable & to what degree, & what is not scalable. Also what your position is on the liklihood or lack of NGN topology & deployment shifting towards the revolutionary Gilder/Avanex lambda-sphere, in which the inefficiencies of old skool circuit switching, when powerfully augmented by exponentially disruptive breakthroughs & advances in DWDM technology, can give everybody a directly connected lightpath/IP address in a switchless topology. Dirty Dingus wrote a pretty devestating critique of this vision recently on the GG board, which you undoubtedly saw.

I am increasingly skeptical about the near term viabilty of the lambda-sphere vision. But without going that far, it is already possible to see emergent & ascendant trends & companies. ONIS comes to mind for me, in that DWDM is starting to fan out from the white hot optical core & trans-continental/inter-continental transport engines, into the more switch-intensive, service add/drop metro space, & some of the larger more entrenched players are looking to partner with them & bleeding-edge DWDM technologies like theirs.

Aspects of DWDM do seem scalable to me in the sense that, once dark fibre is in the ground already, it can be leveraged to greater & greater advantage with optical/photonics advances(Gilder says the exponential pace is greater than that of Moore's Law in the IC/microprocessor turf). I find the implications of this seemingly inexorable progression powerful & fascinating. Unlike water moving thru the plumbing pipes under our cities & houses(in which there are fundamental limits to the amount of water that can be squeezed thru the pipes; water pressure & volume can only be increased so much or the pipes will burst- only laying new/more/thicker pipes alleviate this), DWDM keeps licing the optical spectrum into finer & finer slices.

Sometimes it seems like if we extrapolate out this dynamic, in a few years, optical researchers, scientists & engineers will be able to exploit the seemingly limitless & vast photonic expanses, to the point that individual slices/channels will be a s relatively small as a single playing card in a deck of cards that spanned the Planet Earth. Thats hard core disruptive :^). Look out from below, as you would say.

This started out as a post about the post I am thinking about, & it will be soon be as long as the actual post, so let me stop here :^). I just wanted to let you know that I am still thinking about this, I hope to have a less sketchy continuation of some of these thematic vectors back at ya by tonight or possibly tomorrow. I hope we can continue the conversation. I think these subjects are of vital importance & interest to those investing in the NGN space. And so did the FOOL, it seems, with the well deserved POD, & the number of recs you received in the community. And I couldn't think of a better & more able teacher.

Keep rockin the photons, Paul

t2
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