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No. of Recommendations: 31
Hi all,

When I took the rule breaker seminar what now seems
a billion years ago, I found that something was missing
in the approach to finding new RB's. Most of the time, someone
would focus on a single company and run the criteria. But I find it
much more useful to start with a whole technology sector and
get an overall picture of who does what, who is in competition
with who, etc. Then, one can zero in on one specific
industry and compare the numbers between companies in that specific
sector. In other words, I needed the context before I
felt ready to discuss a specific company. I have not seen this
done on the Fool (at least not systematically), although I have seen something close to what
I was looking for in a USA Today article. So I have decided
to finally go ahead and do it myself for the biotech sector.
Maybe it's just me and most people will not find it to be a useful approach.

Also, I realize that most of you will already know all this.
I hope it might still be useful to some people new to biotech,
and that people who know more may help me improve this list.

This is a very rough first attempt,
and I am not claiming that it is exhaustive, far from it!


Here we go. Note: Market cap and
200 revenues are in millions. The companies are ranked according to their market cap.

The "2000 change column" does not mean much, when you think about it. For example, within a few days the 2000 change for WTRS went from +20% to -10% (because the price at the beginning of the year was low). So use with great care. Two last comments: I have looked at several sources and numbers are often in contradiction. They differ by a lot . For example, I've seen the EPS of Incyte quoted as -$0.54 on one site and as -$0.24 on another! The market caps are pretty consistent, but not the EPS. However, the EPS are much more consistent when they are positive. Maybe different sites use different evaluations for companies not making profits yet.


Pat's Biotech Overall Picture (PBOP) as of Oct 18, 2000

Company Makt cap EPS '99 2000 52 weeks Closing
Rev change high/low Price



Database companies who map the genome


Celera (CRA) 5,717 -$1.72 $12.5 -20% $276/$14 $59

Incyte (INCY) 2,519 -$0.24 $157 +6% $144/$8 $31

Comments: HGSI (see below) also performs some mapping If I understand
correctly, CRA is dedicated to the complete mapping of the genes,
whereas INCY and HGSI are focusing on just the fraction that is more likely
to be relevant to immdediate drug applications.
As everyone knows, HGSI is the new Fool's RB.

A very interesting post emphasizes an important difference between
the mapping of genes performed by CRA vs INCY (and HGSI). Worth
reading:http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=11692498


Companies trying to find new drugs using gene mapping

Millenium Pharm $13,925 -$1.25 $184 131% $144/$8 $70
(MLNM)
Human Gen Sci $9,554 -$1.5 $24.5 164% $116/17 $100
(HGSI)

Surprisingly, on a 50 weeks time interval, MLNM looks like it's taking off
much faster than HGSI. The same picture emerges from considering 10,
20, 30 or 40 weeks periods! A recent very interesting post questions the
drug pipeline of HGSI. Worth reading: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13406669
A recent interview of the CEO can be found here http://www.twst.com/ceos/hgsi.html


Companies which make the hardware permitting to map genes

PE Biosys $24,789 $0.87 $1,221 72% $160/$30 $104
(PEB)
Waters Instr. $9.99 $0.57 $17.6 -10% $34/$3 $5
(WTRS)


DNA chips makers: fabricate chips performing genetic analysis

Affymetrix (AFFX) $3,655 $-0.23 $102 -39% $163/$36 $51
Caliper Techn (CALP) $1,228 $-0.54 $12.1 -20% $202/$16 $53
Nanogen (NGEN) $401 $-0.40 $8.1 -35% $101/$6 $13

Notice that Corning (GLW), Agilent (A) and others are jumping on the
biochips bandwagon, See the recent Fool article.


Companies who sort through gene info looking for drug applications

Maxygen (MAXY) $1,618 $-0.34 $14.0 -45% $186/$16 $39
Diversa (DVSA) $939 $-0.34 $10.3 -70% $169/$23 $23

Note: Diversa went public in February. The % drop is since it went public.


Raw ingredients makers: provide antibodies, mices, etc to drug companies

Abgenix (ABGX) $6,561 $-0.08 $12.3 +150% $103/$9 $83
Medarex (MEDX) $4,225 $-0.29 $9.9 +196% $206$/$6 $110


Biotech Pharmacies: distribute biotech drugs to hospitals and patients

Priority Healthcare
(PHCC) $1,730 $0.65 $428 +125% $77/$19 $65
Accredo Health $807 $0.61 $258 +107% $52/$17 $44
(ACDO)


Tissue engineering companies

The main compettors are listed in a recent RB portfolio article:
http://www.fool.com/portfolios/rulebreaker/2000/rulebreaker000929.htm


Biotech drug companies. These will be sorted depending on wether
they have drugs on the market or not.



Mature companies who have drugs on the market now

Amgen (AMGN) $65,615 $1.06 $3,340 +12% $80/$37 $68
Genentech $38,284 $-1.1 $1,421 +9.1% $245/$67 $148
(DNA)
Immunex (IMNX) $21,499 $0.21 $541 +27% $84/$14 $46
Chiron (CHIR) $8,03 $1.05 $763 +10% $71/$25 $47
Biogen (BGEN) $7,500 $2.13 $794 -40%!! $129/$47 $53
IDEC (IDPH) $7,500 $0.67 $118 +92% $180/$42 $188
Genzyme (GENZ) $5,848 $2.34 $635 +60% $77/$31 $72


Companies who are close to getting FDA approval

ImClone (IMCL) $1,766 $-1.7 $2 +178% $172/$16 $56
Cell Therapeutics $ 1,739 $-2.55 $0 (?) +888% $70/$1!! $68
(CTIC)
NPS Pharma $891 $-2.77 $3 +187% $58/$3 $35
(NPSP)
Cell Pathways $227 $-0.89 $0 -13% $66/$6 $8
(CLPA)


Comments: Cell Therapeutics has gained recently after the FDA
cleared their leukemia treatment. On the other hand,
Cell Pathways has been clobbered lately. FDA has refused
one of their drug. They have a very limited pipeline and things
don't look too good, as far as I know

Company who are further from FDA approval

Avant (AVAN) $446 $-0.24 +190% $19/$1 $7





This is admittedly sketchy. Let me know if some other companies
should be added (and where they fit), if there are important news
concerning these companies, if other type of info would
be useful, if I got something wrong, etc.

Ideally, it would be nice to organize the companies
who have some drugs on the market according to
the type of drugs they are producing to get an
idea of who could be in competition with who, etc.
And also isolate the proteomics players.


Patrick
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