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Might not PALM be a budding gorilla?

It has a proprietary open architecture with a large surrounding value chain.

-Bruce
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Might not PALM be a budding gorilla? It has a proprietary open architecture with a large surrounding value chain.

An interesting question that was also raised by TMF Gibson in Breakfast with the Fool http://www.fool.com/news/breakfast/breakfast.htm

Palm Pilots seem to be gaining wide-spread acceptance. And they have managed to create a value-chain that would make them the leader in the hand-held electronic PDA. But TMFGibson also askes "Would you carry a PDA if your cellular phone provided all the same functions for less money?"

Interesting question which raised a few in my mind.

Is the Palm Pilot going to be killed by the next discontinuous technology? I.e. Digital handsets combining voice and data transmission?

Would you rather browse the web, take notes, consult your to do list, schedule, etc on a (relatively) big screen? Or on the tiny ones that are currently offered by Nokia, Motorola, et, al?

What is the possibility that Palm's operating system would be licensed to the affor-mentioned handset makers? That would certainly open the handsets to an existing value-chain of software, and allow Palm to reap royalties forever.

I am admittedly ignorant of the direction this technology is moving. Are handset makers in a chasm with competing standards for an OS to run applications? Will one emerge as the standard all the pragmatists latch onto? Is Palm positioned to accept the role as handset OS Gorilla?

Or is this just one of a bunch of companies to put into a basket until bowling alley phase?

Obviously a subject that requires some serious DD.

I think as a consumer I'm going to invest in both a handset and a Palm Pilot. But then I might be described as a first standard deviant in the technology adoption life cycle.

And my first VCR was a Beta Hi-Fi deck . . .

V/R
Bill

Disclaimer: Long on CSCO, MSFT, QCOM, SUNW, INTC, JDSU, ORCL, NOK, SEBL, ARBA, CRA, YHOO, and AMGN - but not (yet) on PALM

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Palm Pilots seem to be gaining wide-spread acceptance. And they have managed to create a value-chain that would make them the leader in the hand-held electronic PDA. But TMFGibson also askes "Would you carry a PDA if your cellular phone provided all the same functions for less money?"

Interesting question which raised a few in my mind.

Is the Palm Pilot going to be killed by the next discontinuous technology? I.e. Digital handsets combining voice and data transmission?

Would you rather browse the web, take notes, consult your to do list, schedule, etc on a (relatively) big screen? Or on the tiny ones that are currently offered by Nokia, Motorola, et, al?


That's the way to think, Bill.

Question: Anybody prefer to own the enabling technology for all of these hand held devices?

Question: Anybody prefer to own the enabling technology for broadband wireless devices?

Nokia has a nice combination phone/PDA that sells over here in Europe. If it comes down to broadband CDMA for all the OEM's including Palm - I want to own the enabling technology companies.

BB

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Question: Anybody prefer to own the enabling technology for all of these hand held devices?

Question: Anybody prefer to own the enabling technology for broadband wireless devices?

Nokia has a nice combination phone/PDA that sells over here in Europe. If it comes down to broadband CDMA for all the OEM's including Palm - I want to own the enabling technology companies.


Ok, spent a little time surfing this AM, and I'm intrigued.

Palm seems to be putting alliances together that may just assure that they will indeed an “enabling technology” as well as a hardware manufacturer. Companies such as Nokia, Sun, Motorola, Sony, AOL, Amazon, Yahoo have all established alliances with Palm. A few have bought major stakes in Palm's IPO.

The following link is to a consolidated list of press releases by category. Look at the alliances they're building!

http://www.palm.com/about/pr/archive_bycategory.html

Then look at this CNET reported on the Wise analysts views of Palms business model:

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-1562051.html?tag=st.ne.1002.

An excerpt:

“The company is looking forward to the age of wireless devices and Internet-enabled cell phones, and has inked a number of deals to put its software on these devices. Palm devices are expected to eventually be eclipsed in popularity by these wireless products, but analysts and investors have generally been reassured by the company's long-term view and strategic positioning.”

Further they report:

“Motorola purchased 1.7 million Palm shares yesterday at the initial $38 price. America Online and Nokia each purchased 2.1 million shares, according to Palm.”

In another CNET article, it is reported that indeed, Palm wants to license it's OS:

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-1559057.html?tag=st.ne.ron.lthd.1006-200-1559057

“The company also is looking to transistion its business from focusing on hardware to licensing its operating system software. Recently, Palm signed high-profile partners such as Handspring, started by Palm co-founders Donna Dubinsky and Jeff Hawkins, as well as Nokia, Motorola and Sony.
"We believe the main driver for Palm exists in licensing of its operating software," said a recent research report from Lehman Bros. "Major wireless players such as Nokia, Motorola and other (handheld) vendors such as Handspring have joined the licensee list alongside e-commerce partners such as Amazon and Yahoo. " “


That's all I can get away with this AM. The boss wants some productivity out of me. But this is an interesting play, and I will be delving deeper.

Take care,
Bill
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<< If it comes down to broadband CDMA for all the OEM's including Palm - I want to own the enabling technology companies. >>


Ooh...ooh...Qualcomm!


rex

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If it comes down to broadband CDMA for all the OEM's including Palm - I want to own the enabling technology companies.

Ooh...ooh...Qualcomm!


If you want to get a peek at at least one possibility of the future of handsets . . . And how Qualcom, CDMA and the Palm OS could be the enabling technologies, check out the Qualcom, er, uh, Kyocera PDQ Smartphone:

http://www.kyocera-wireless.com/pdq/index.html

<img src="http://kyocera-wireless.com/Art/Phone_Images/1_pdq_m_right.gif" </img>


Info on how the Palm OS (including how it is modified to allow FULL web site browsing (vice "web clipping") because this handset operates on a CDMA network):

http://www.kyocera-wireless.com/pdq/faq/palmrel.html

I played with it today. It is a big, bulky fat phone. It needs to be put on a diet to appeal to the type of person that is willing to shell out >$600. Maybe Nokia can come up with a sleek, euro model of a CDMA/Palm OS/digital voice handset . . .



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