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You, who live in NJ, have been invited to your nephew's wedding. The nephew is the son of a sibling with whom you get along just fine, but you and sibling talk to each other once or twice a year and don't email or write to each other.

The wedding is to take place on June 12, and in a state that has a lot of COVID-19 cases, in a county that has a lot of COVID-19 cases (it's not as bad as NY or NJ, but the state is in the top 10 of most affected states). For you to attend, you will have to travel 1,000 miles and across several states, by plane or by car. And you would be expected to attend a large gathering on the night of June 11th, and obviously the wedding and post-wedding dinner and party on June 12, and you would leave the next day, on June 13.

Given your concerns for your own health and safety in this who-knows-what's-going-on COVID era, your current, right-now belief is that the likelihood of your attending the wedding and wedding-related festivities is about:
0% as of right now, but I could change my views.
More than 0% but at best 50/50 as of right now
A good chance (above 50%).
Strong likelihood I would go.
I know I would not go, period. No way. I'm at 0% now, in May & June.

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