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No. of Recommendations: 1
Things aren't looking too good right now. The Covid variant from Africa could be nasty. The folks in Michigan think it's OK to have thousands of people face to face at a (very good) football game. Meanwhile, their Covid incidence per capita leads the nation, and is up 59% over the past 14 days. So what will this winter be like for the United States re Covid?
 19% (4 Votes)
Worse than last year
 38% (8 Votes)
About the same
 42% (9 Votes)
Better than last year
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No. of Recommendations: 7
I went with "better than last year." Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Negatives:
1)Still a lot of stupid people who refuse to get vaccinated.
2)Variant from Africa
3)Risky behaviors (not only at football games)

Positives:
1)Much better science: vaccines, testing, treatments
2)A president who doesn't have his head up his butt

I'm well aware of President Biden's low approval ratings. But we live in a country
where people want to blame the President for everything. Meanwhile, many won't lift a finger
to take care of themselves, or to protect others.

The panic is here. I think that Covid is a real concern. But if
everybody just took a deep breath and asked what THEY can do to make their lives
better, we just might have a decent winter
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Bad, but not as bad as last year. I hope.

Depends on the covidiots...will more of them get vaxxed?...and regular folks...will they keep masking and social distancing?

Also depends on just how bad this Omicron variant (or the next one-) turns out to be, and if the current vaccines work against it. If not, we'll need boosters on top of boosters.

Speaking of hope, I hope we'll reach 80% vaxxed next year (well, I really hope for 95%, but that's unrealistic with the Q-crowd.)
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I voted about the same. But, it will not be the same. Michigan is the poster child. The numbers are easy there. 10 million people. Between those that have been sick and those that are vaccinated there is a 1 million gap between the immune and herd immunity. The winter season started a Thanksgiving and will end in March. 100 days. So we need 1 million infected in 100 days. That works out to 10,000 a day average. Probably be closer to 20,000 a day peak. Currently the mortality rate is 0.5 percent, so we can expect 5000 dead in Michigan by March 1st. This works out to an average of 50 a day with peaks likely of 100 a day.

If course this is based on the assumption that we experience the delta variant and the medical system does not collapse.

If, and this is a big if, the Omnicron variant is as deadly as the delta variant, and it is as transmissible as the preliminary(extremely preliminary) data suggests, the the 1 million that we need infected in Michigan will be infected in 50 days, not 100. At that rate the medical system will collapse and if (another huge if) Omnicron is as deadly as delta, then the mortality rate will jump significantly. Use 2 percent as this is a conservative estimate for crisis situations with Covid in the past. At 2 percent you get 20,000 dead in 50 days for an average of 400 dead a day for 50 days with peaks nearing 1000 a day.

Pretty scary. Lotta ifs. On the other hand, virology history has shown that viruses get less deadly as the mutate, not more. If Omnicron is as less deadly as it is more transmissible, then we will sell a lot of Kleenex and be over Covid by St. Patricks day.

Cheers
Qazulight
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It'll be fine. Trump isn't in power.

Biden Pelosi Schumer are.

The new variant is Bannon's fault.
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Also re Michigan, several research universities that are heavily populated with scientists and students from overseas, (which is great, I'm all for it, but since 2020 we've known that contributes to transmission).

Also a major international airport which is a large regional employer, so you have lots of covidiots mingling with travelers from around the world, then going back into their communities.

The University of Michigan also just had a major influenza outbreak. Their packed stadium yesterday was a disgrace.

As my sister said, this winter is going to be another "Introvert's Delight." Anyone who thinks it's safe to resume normal activity is delusional. I'm going back to curbside grocery pickup this week and thankfully can work 100 percent from home. and I'm triple vaccinated.
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The University of Michigan also just had a major influenza outbreak. Their packed stadium yesterday was a disgrace.

Michigan leads the country in per capita cases of Covid, which have risen 59% in the past two weeks. Nobody can convince me that everyone in that stadium was vaccinated. I didn't see ANY masks. OK....they're outdoors....but on top of each other and spewing out Covid particles.

Disgrace is too mild a word.
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Yeah, I agree.

Especially for a university that touts its leadership in biomedical research and its supposed world-class health system.
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Many of the college sports I have seen on TV appeared to be sellouts. Hundred of thousands outdoors in stadiums and tens of thousands indoors in gyms.
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