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Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)
ZM will zoom to the top!
CAKE and grilled cheese..mmmm!

Click here to see results so far.

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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

You 23 Zoomaniacs are off to a bad start vs us Cheesecake Factory Fans (CFFs).

Zm down 3.5% to $159
CAKE up 7% to $21.50

Should be a fun year.

I predict CAKE wins by at least 10%.

Dreamer
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

---

ZM now $149 or down about -9% since poll.
CAKE now $25 or up about +25% since poll.

So...yeah.


Dreamer
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I think it is time to open a short position on ZM. Economy opening up, competition from Facebook and Google, positive news from Gilead... powerful combination to bring the stock down at least in the short-term.
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I raised my cash to 15% on Tuesday. Mostly from LGI Homes which was 18% or so of the port. Was rewarded by its being up 14% so though I had reduced by about 25%, it is back up. Not kicking myself, at this point in my port recovery and market recovery I think now at 13% cash that's just prudent. I have a lot of stocks in my long tail, substitute for a watch list and it gives insight into what sectors and sub-sectors are doing what. Sector rotation and all that.

Top 10 positions are LGIH, AYX, CRWD, OKTA, TTD, DDOG, LVGO, SHOP, MDB AND ROKU. Not much original thinking there.

KC
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

---

oh no!
CAKE down 7% at moment, and ZM only down 6%...perhaps ZM is the better stock???? Woe!

ZM $138.60
CAKE $22.65

Exciting race!

Dreamer
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Important 2020 poll update!

"Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)"

---

5/8 current prices
ZM $160 or -2%
CAKE $21.65 or +8%

again proving that valuation and time of purchase often really does matter.


As you were.

Dreamer
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

-----

42 of you were sure ZM would crush CAKE.
Let's do a progress report after 3 weeks:

ZM $166.88 = up 1%
CAKE $19.63 = down 2%

Man...that video conferencing stock, of the company that has completely revolutionized video conferencing for a WFH culture that is "here to stay" sure is crushing the Cheesecake Factory...a restaurant that, in many states, people can't eat in yet.

Valuation does matter.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
“ Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?”

Looks like 42 folks are correct.

Perhaps a better poll would be

“Would you invest today in either ZM or CAKE”

Because I bet the answer is no. No for ZM due to recent valuations and hell no to CAKE because an awful low margin service business.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Looks like 42 folks are correct.

---

How do you figure 42 are correct? The contest is thru end of year, and ZM dropped another couple % since my post, and they are now down slightly over past 3 weeks. It is effectively a tied race!

As for Gross Profit, of course they won't be close to a software company, but they are historically over 40% GP margin. Either way, the investment in CAKE is a bounceback play on economy reopening...a reversion back to the mean...not a future growth story.

Every one of Saul stocks are down today in a big up market day. A one-day occurrence or a repeat of the sector rotation of Fall 2019, simply due to valuation? My guess is the latter.

Dreamer
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March 16th to present....this is not meant to imply anything, nor is it a prediction of what we might see by year end.

The March 16th lows vs. current

ESTC 41.63 83.92
DDOG 28.88 72.81
FSLY 10.65 42.07
ZM 103.20 173.25
LVGO 18.76 59.87
NTNX 12.48 24.54
TTD 160.49 312.31
OKTA 88.66 190.94
CAKE 16.87 19.77


Definitely CAKE is the least volatile. :-) Pretty remarkable performance with ZM likely the worst of the bunch of SAAS stuff.

long DDOG, FSLY, LVGO, TTD, OKTA
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that, sir, is a bit of misdirection!

The contest is from ZM at the $165 mark or whatever it was at the time of the poll, vs CAKE thru EOY.

I still contend this is an easy win for CAKE...see ya in Dec.

Getting really close to buying some puts on OKTA/ZM/DDOG.


Dreamer
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Look over here -------->


I personally suspect ZM is going to plummet - I see no moat AT ALL.

Anecdotally, I attend many on-line 12 step recovery meetings (using Zoom) and have noticed attendance at these meetings has dramatically decreased over the past month. For many folks in recovery, while it is currently the only way to fellowship, it is clearly not meeting their needs.

In my professional life, we use Teams and Webex and I have already seen many adaptions/improvements. Zoom's competition is broad and many have deep pockets. So despite the many press releases and anecdotal evidence (all positive) being paraded around over at another board, I feel pretty confident the current Zoom price is a big overshoot.

Frankly, I suspect I will not see a price that would make me think re-entry is worthwhile. I was happy to exit with an amazing gain on a stock that I entered only because of FOMO - and I honestly was anxious about it the entire time I held it.

carver
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You obviously haven't been reading enough of the daily ZM anecdotes on Sauls board. It will be twice the size of Google+Apple+Amazon combined. There is no stopping the freight train of revenue that will flood in via the hundreds of millions of free users!! Wait...uh. Hmmm.

Literally as the economy improves, ZM will go down. The converse is now true. You literally have to hope for the virus and WFH to last indefinitely for share price appreciation.

ZM should buy another company with their stock while they can. Ala AOL buying Time Warner. It is only after the fact it becomes obvious what a joke of a mkt cap something is.

It went up 150% or whatever in like 2 months or so...you won...cash in.

Dreamer
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I hedged DDOG just before close today. sto 75p bto 2 70P
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)


---

It has been 1 month.

ZM at $66, or almost up 1%
CAKE at $21, or almost up 5%

Three thousand sappy anecdotes won't change the fact that the name of the game is stock appreciation from today's price moving forward. What has ZM done for you the past month?

Good luck out there...

Dreamer <--- entire port is up 4.3% so far today, while ZM is down 2.5%.
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CAKE over $22.
ZM under $155.

Yeah. I guess I just don't "get it" and the "magic" is gone.


Dreamer
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In this below article ZM CEO is quoted that by 2022 the TAM will be $43 B. Today's market cap is slightly higher than that. I am sure COVID has increased the TAM and probably they would have launched other products, solutions interim. Still, the market cap is higher than TAM is something..


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-key-ceo-quotes-zoom-1445005...
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I guess I don't really get this thread but from the start of the thread ZM now up a little over 9%. Cake a little over 7%. End of year still a long way away.
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I guess I don't want to speak for the original poster, the point he is trying to make is some of the SaaS names that are so richly valued and some of the value plays that are cheap will revert to mean given time.
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

---

ZM at $210, 27% gain
CAKE at $26, 30% gain


that is despite ZM producing the greatest SaaS Q of all-time.

Valuation still matters.

This one is going to be a real slobber-knocker all year long!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 12
ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

After Hours 8/31

ZM: $401.00 (+143.6%)
CAKE: $29.50 (+47.2%)

A nearly 100% difference.

Growth Trumps Value
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It isnt 12/31 yet.

And you are ripping on a measly 50% gain in CAKE.

When there is a vaccine, what is the catalyst for ZM rev to grow?

ZM is a rockstar this year. Thanks to a pandemic.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
OK... Now I can't trade ZM or CAKE for a few days now...

Which has more optionality going forward? CAKE is pretty defined and hasn't seemed to express much interest in expanding its TAM. ZM is pretty open-ended with a visionary CEO.

It took me a while to warm up to ZM, I admit. I'm vindicated in the short term. Too short to declare any type of victory. But, if after-hours prices hold, "defeat" will have to dig itself out of a hole.


Fool on!
Thanks, and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob (long: ZM)
Maintenance Coverage Fool
See what a "Coverage Fool" does here: http://www.fool.com/community/community-team.aspx
See my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFDatabasebob/info.aspx
Peace on Earth

Please note: I am not a member of any newsletter team. My opinions are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the TMF advisers. I am a Maintenance Coverage Fool (see the above link for details). I am not an investment professional, merely an investor.
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No. of Recommendations: 8
And you are ripping on a measly 50% gain in CAKE.

Sounds like sour grapes to me. Many of the stocks you sold have gone up so much more. Reading some of your posts since March, well you are all over the place with so much indecision and changes like the wind. You used to have firm beliefs and good stock picking skills but when you thought they became too high you sold out. Each to his own. This is not a personal attack just facts. But hey it’s ok to blame the pandemic whereas others have greatly prospered.
What happened to you?
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But hey it’s ok to blame the pandemic whereas others have greatly prospered.
What happened to you?

----

I continued to invest with predefined stock price goals and exit strategies instead of chase momentum stocks.

And balanced risk while hitting 40% cagr for 5th straight year (so far...still 4 months to go and things could go south).

Congrats on your gains.
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It’s okay to be wrong. Go easy on him. He was clear on his thinking and backed it up with his actions.

Dreamer made an educated guess to get out of the “overvalued” SAAS and work from home stocks. He will be able to declare victory when they eventually pull back.

Let Dreamer enjoy his SPG REITs, which he will ride the rebound and have the last laugh, even though the economy still is struggling with covid related matters.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

After Hours 8/31

ZM: $401.00 (+143.6%)
CAKE: $29.50 (+47.2%)

A nearly 100% difference.

Growth Trumps Value
----

Cake 31.93, 59%
ZM. 370, 124%

Overbought momentum slips.

How about we save the next update for 12/31 vs after next ZM ER?
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Cake 31.93, 59%
ZM. 370, 124%

Overbought momentum slips.

How about we save the next update for 12/31 vs after next ZM ER?

---

Darn it...

ZM at 359 now. I can't keep up. Sheesh.

I will report back with updates throughout the day if air keeps leaking out of the overbought balloons.

(snarky works both ways)

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

---

update:

ZM up 150%
CAKE up 94% (not too shabby)

still about 7 weeks left...

Dreamer
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update:

ZM up 150%
CAKE up 94% (not too shabby)

still about 7 weeks left...

---

ZM up 135%
CAKE up 86%

Maybe there is a price to pay for nonsensical and never-ending multiple expansion, in a world soon awash in vaccines to combat the very catalyst that causes said expansion in the first place?
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No. of Recommendations: 2
ZM up 135%
CAKE up 86%

Maybe there is a price to pay for nonsensical and never-ending multiple expansion, in a world soon awash in vaccines to combat the very catalyst that causes said expansion in the first place?

---

Will ZM bounce back dramatically tomorrow? (possibly)
Will 3-day rule drive ZM down further after tomorrow? (possibly)

All I know is this is where we are at, and in the final homestretch of December's epic showdown between a place that makes incredible grilled cheese sandwiches and another that thrives during pandemics.

ZM up 147%
CAKE up 94%

CAKE holding up well. Was certainly a good investment from June/July or whenever I made that poll. Needs ZM to collapse a bit to really have a shot at overtaking the company that created the world's first videoconferencing software!

(guy leans in and explains video calls have been around for years)
(Dreamer says that makes no sense, as why would ZM be worth $120b+ mkt cap if what they do is not unique)
(words exchanged about each other's mothers...things get ugly)

Attica! Attica!


Dreamer
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ZM up 147%
CAKE up 94%

---

ZM up 134%
CAKE up 89%

Zoom slid today.
CAKE would be about 100% today, but they had a bloody nose from SEC over covid disclosure shenanigans. Think they tried to bribe people with cheesecakes or something.

Will December yield an 8-month-long prophecy fulfillment, or will ZM shake off those pesky vaccine news cycles and reassert control?

Dreamer
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ZM up 134%
CAKE up 89%

---

Zm 117%
Cake 88%

Final week!
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Zm 117%
Cake 88%

Final week!

---

ZM 111%

But CAKE not doing its part, and has dropped to 85%


I am willing to concede that CAKE is unlikely to win the bet at this point, with one day remaining.

Pretty sure it was closely than most of you believed it would be though.

Greatest company of all time (at least until Saul started selling it a few weeks ago) against a sit-down restaurant in the middle of a pandemic.

Valuation does matter.
Pretty sure 2021 will bear that out.

My fault for not having enough imagination to foresee how poorly Trump would manage this crisis, as we are about 3-4 months behind where I thought we would be at this point. Not so much the vaccine rollout, which is still impressively fast, but rather the manner in which an entire subset of potus-worshipping clowns championed an anti-mask movement, which ironically for the GOP is anti-business.

Being a gracious loser, I shall now cut the cheese...

Cake. Cheesecake is what I meant. Who wants a slice?

Dreamer
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Happy New Year Dreamer and all. Hope all our wishes come true but above all we remain healthy and vigilant to what lies ahead.
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Final results:

The most incredible company of all time...the inventor of the video call...the smartest CEO...finishes at 105%

vs

The sitdown restaurant in middle of a pandemic that makes an awesome grilled cheese (they use that thicker bread, has that garlic-y ranch dressing, and you can choose American or Cheddar)...finishes at 85%

Congratulations to Zoom. Not so much congrats to those that bought ZM at the top a few weeks back.


Dreamer
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This was April 27th 2020:
"ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)"

---

I was really following CAKE anymore, but when searching for something else I saw it must have popped this month.

Currently:
CAKE $46.82 (and that is with it being down 6% today...maybe they were part of wsb reddit plays?)
ZM at $367

CAKE at 138%
ZM at 123%

So I guess the wsb reddit crew driving up prices nonsensically in certain stocks that have poor long-term financial prospects has very similar effect as retail investors playing up "covid plays" as if the world won't ever go back to normal.

Fascinating.
So does anyone actually care about fundamentals anymore?

Like the MGNI hype factory. This was Tremor Video which became Telaria which merged with Rubicon, and suddenly because TTD went into the stratosphere and MGNI is kinda/sorta related to that adtech/ctv space, people think that it should just go up 20x.

I guess the fact that the largest streaming services are all SVOD vs AVOD doesn't bother MGNI investors? Or that SSPs and DSPs aren't nearly the same business models? That is if they know what the acronyms mean?

I will sit and wait for a crash. We seem to get a good one at some point each year.

Dreamer
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Page 18 of JPM guide to the markets says average intrayear decline is 14.5%
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/...
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Page 18 of JPM guide to the markets says average intrayear decline is 14.5%
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/......

---

So I take that to mean the market indexes, on average, will drop, at some point each year, about 14.5% from one point in time to another. Not necessarily from the high of the year to the low of the year.

For example...made up number for Nasdaq:

starts year at 10000
goes to 11000 by march (up 10%)
drops 14.5% to 9350 in April
rallies in the ensuing months and is choppy but up rest of year to finish at 12000.

So market went up 20% for the year, with the biggest intra-year drop being 14.5% from March to April.

That how you read it?

Dreamer
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That's how I read it. Kind of a fun facts page
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ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

---

10 months since i wrote the poll.

ZM at $388 for impressive 137% gain!

CAKE at $53.99 for 169% gain!

So. Yeah.
Love their grilled cheese and fries!

Dreamer
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10 months since i wrote the poll.

ZM at $388 for impressive 137% gain!

CAKE at $53.99 for 169% gain!

So. Yeah.
Love their grilled cheese and fries!


Nice, but from your original post -

Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM still won that poll.
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Yes. Barely.

Just pointing out that a piece of cheesecake continues to outperform overvalued growth after almost a year.

Some people dont like the truth about valuations.

If futures are accurate for today, they probably will have a bad day today too.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
ZM: $401.00 (+143.6%)
CAKE: $29.50 (+47.2%)

A nearly 100% difference.

Growth Trumps Value

-----

You may want to check again.

ZM: 315
CAKE: 57.69


Oh well...I could have called that.
Wait. I did. I did call that.

Dreamer
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Reading some of your posts since March, well you are all over the place with so much indecision and changes like the wind. You used to have firm beliefs and good stock picking skills but when you thought they became too high you sold out. Each to his own. This is not a personal attack just facts. But hey it’s ok to blame the pandemic whereas others have greatly prospered.
What happened to you?

---

Hmmm.
That didn't age well.


Dreamer
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Oh well...I could have called that.
Wait. I did. I did call that.


Lol. Your board so you can change the rules any time you want!
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Yes, ZM was the better investment thru the end of 2020.
I was off by a couple of weeks.

Now it is currently well in favor of CAKE.

So this is the equivalent of "If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around, does it still make a sound?"

"If ZM was wildly bought up by momentum investors and was $588 at one point, but you didn't sell, and it is now $315, did you ever really have those gains?"

Dreamer

ps...the answer is "C".
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ps...the answer is "C".

What is "C," outsized gain AND significant loss? ;-)
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Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)
74% (50 Votes)
ZM will zoom to the top!
25% (17 Votes)
CAKE and grilled cheese..mmmm!

----

16 months later:

ZM will open around $305 tomorrow.
Cake at $45.

Both off highs, but you still wound up with more cheese if you held CAKE.

Tell me again why 2020 and even many of the current overvalued stocks aren't just a Momentum game?
Zoom is still growing. So I guess they were never really worth $350 or $400 or $450 or whatever their high was.

Pretty sure we will be saying the same about SNOW and DDOG and DOCU and some others. Or they will just trade sideways for a year like Zoom.

Dreamer
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50 of you bet on ZM then.

Would you still brt on ZM now?

Probably not, but i ironically would.

ZM $270 today
CAKE $48 today.

Percentage wise, i think ZM will move up more than CAKE in next 12 months.

Since the original poll. ZM is losing about 64% to 140%.


I do think timing matters.

Dreamer
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I do think timing matters.

I agree. Also, everyone that bet on Zoom won the poll and your CAKE lost. Timing matters!
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I do think timing matters.

I agree. Also, everyone that bet on Zoom won the poll and your CAKE lost. Timing matters!

----

Just for that, I may have to do an UPST poll/bet.
Saul clones just can't ever imagine a reversion to the mean, or stock prices coming back to reality.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Saul clones just can't ever imagine a reversion to the mean, or stock prices coming back to reality.

I don't think holding you to your own poll rules makes someone a Saul clone. You were 100% correct that Zoom was waaay ahead of itself but you were wrong on your bet. ZM beat CAKE, period. You can't change your rules. Your poll was bold and included a date which is admirable. I give you a lot of credit for being right a lot more than you're wrong.

I don't own too many of Saul's stocks so perhaps I'm a poor clone. Most of my biggest gains are non-Saul stocks like SNAP, ROKU, ILMN, ENPH, TTD and LVGO (both that he owned afterward for a hot minute), TSLA (he kicks people off his board for discussing), MDB (he sold like 400% ago?).

I was actually pretty late to ZM. Bought in the mid-300s. Position got too big for me, sold some at 500, some at 440, some at 360, and still holding a 3% position that is down about 25%. I've been impacted by i/o opinion which hasn't been great of late. I also don't think it's at a good price to sell for cash now (seems we agree), or to buy something else unless they come down a lot. Just hit another 52 wk low today...

I do own Upstart, got that tip from Bert in March (before Saul) and watched it go from 125 to 190 and back to 110 when i started a position (after Saul). I doubled down on the huge up day after earnings in August when it was at 165 and up 25% for the day. Don't think anyone needed Saul to see that happening based on ER although the magnitude has been shocking.

I definitely think Upstart is ripe for a poll that you can win. Sometimes they revert to the mean, sometimes they don't (TTD?).
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sometimes they don't (TTD?).

---

blah blah dreamer blah blah rules blah blah.

Go look at May 13th-ish lows, especially for stocks like TTD and NVDA.

And it can happen again. Takes more than 1 day.
Perhaps today is start of an actual correction or rotation.
Or perhaps yet another BTFD opportunity.


Dreamer
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ZM $270 today
CAKE $48 today.

---

after today, rounding up for both:

ZM $262
CAKE $49

Which means I continue to be correct in that the ZM stock price appreciation game was a scam as they had pulled forward all their growth already.

The Saul game is a momentum game.
ZM is at a $4b runrate at $80b mkt cap.

Any of the other Saul stocks would be beyond thrilled to reach $4b in runrate.
But they would undergo massive multiple contraction to stay under $80b mkt cap.

Zoom simply grew TOO FAST. If they had just grown 125% regularly, the stock would probably be at $500 still, even if the end result was literally/exactly the same, in that they hit $4b runrate with same expected future growth they are forecasting now.

So the Saul stocks are paying for the journey, and not the destination.

I think Saul has been trying to point this out for a while...focus on the numbers. When story (based on numbers) changes, exit the stock. Period.

It is a form of TA almost, when you think about it.

On the other hand, I tend to view the destination...or rather "a" destination, which means I generally have an exit strategy. I never had the stomach for chasing momentum.

I understood the TSLA, NVDA, and TTD stories early on. I thought I understood the ESTC story, but I was long gone from the stock by the time that finally played out successfully (above $120). I understood the SPG story (so far).

I think I can envision a GLBE story. The LSPD and SE stories would be a bit clearer if the growth stocks would just undergo one more 2021 rotation.

This doesn't mean Saul's process isn't great, and that it doesn't work. Obviously it does.
I just don't need to follow it, if I prefer other strategies.

But the clones take it so personally. "but the rules of the poll, Dreamer!" "Wah wah wah".

Time for a new poll.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 5
But the clones take it so personally. "but the rules of the poll, Dreamer!"

I already dispensed your clone comment and I was just holding you accountable to your own rules. Your poll stated "Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?"

ZM +105%
CAKE +85%

"Wah wah wah".

You know you are projecting here, right?

I will leave this here, and let you have the last word if you'd like.

Now I will go back and re-read my copy of "how to win friends and influence people". Pretty sure i need a refresher.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I will leave this here, and let you have the last word if you'd like.

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Yay.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
From May 2020 poll:

Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)

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I should have made it a 2 yr bet.

Which of you would have taken CAKE over ZM, besides me?

Pretty soon ZM mkt cap will be overtaken by the current overvalued momentum stocks.

May be time for some new polls.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Which stock will appreciate more from today's closing price thru Dec 31st 2020: Zoom or The Cheesecake Factory?

ZM $164.60 ($46b mkt cap)
CAKE $20.04 ($911m mkt cap)
73% (50 Votes)
ZM will zoom to the top!
26% (18 Votes)
CAKE and grilled cheese..mmmm!

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Above was April 2020. Almost 2 years ago.
Remember this when you think your current overvalued stock is unstoppable and deserves a 70 P/S.
And Zoom was artificially aided by a once-in-a-100-years pandemic to get there.

Today's current prices:
ZM $171.64 (which equals a CAGR of "meh")
CAKE $38.62 (almost a double)

I took so much grief over this call.

Moral of the story: you can't rationalize with people employing irrational thinking.


Dreamer
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