This is a GG and its of interest (keep posting)
This is not a GG but of interest (keep posting)
This is a GG but not of interest (go away)
This is not a GG and not of interest (go away)
Can't you see there's a constitutional crisis going on (go away)
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Great work!I basically agree that there is at least a good potential for a GG here. Also, on a related front, somebody (xerohype, maybe?) somewhere posited a GG in wireless software featuring AETH, PHCM, INSP and PUMA, I think. At least those are the 4 that got onto my watch list. (Sorry, I don't know where I saw that)I say keep going here for now, if it get's too noisy, you can always move the discussion later.It's certainly an interesting area. Apparently there's a fair amount of bluetooth buzz at Comdex this week (per CNBC, anyway)== dj
Hi DJ (ddjnh):You wrote:"I basically agree that there is at least a good potential for a GG here. Also, on a related front, somebody (xerohype, maybe?) somewhere posited a GG in wireless software featuring AETH, PHCM, INSP and PUMA, I think. At least those are the 4 that got onto my watch list. (Sorry, I don't know where I saw that)"I wrote about a GG in wireless infrastructure plays in Rat's board with these two posts that followed from my discussion of PUMA's last quarterly results:http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13239667http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13197468I also posted this looking at PUMA as a Gorilla candidate in this board:http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13239136The PDA GG has been won by PALM IMHO, now the WID game is being played out with PALM and Symbian leading and MSFT following behind.HAND, Sony, NOK, ERICY and others are just handset makers in this game.PHCM, AETH, PUMA are competing in the wireless application Gorilla Game. PHCM adheres to open non-proprietary standards (WAP) for the most part, while I believe that PUMA has an open proprietary standard. The market is giving the nod for now to PHCM, but PUMA has a lot of momentum in foreign markets with higher wireless internet penetration (Japan, Europe).INSP is an aggregator of content playing a Godzilla Game in this space.Obviously, this all just my opinion so do you DD on all these stocks before investing. In the wireless space I hold QCOM (CDMA Gorilla) and PUMA.Hope this helps.-xerohype
Thanks guys, your comments are perceptive, informative, and usefuly though-provoking. I think you're right inasmuch as there are some complementary games out there, which you chaps are far ahead of me in understanding.I am being very clear (in my own mind at least) in focussing only on the WIDget OS GG. It is certainly complicated as the major players are also in a number of other games - I think this makes them Godzillas ? - and some appear to have achieved kingship at least (I am thinking of Palm and Nokia here; similarly you chaps are looking at AETH, PUMA etc albeit at an earlier stage in their game cycle).I regard the WID-OS game as being the most fundamental one that exists other than the existing big games (front/back office intgn., fibre switch, wireless standard) and the outcome may influence the lesser but related games of AETH etc.I'm not sure if you're right about Palm having won the PDA/PIM game. I think it has achieved Kingship but only for a limited period. It remains to be seen whether it can leverage this position to the bigger WID-OS game. the point is that all it has is a fairly limited OS, a good physical form, and a nice value chain (I wish I had as much). However if if it loses the superceding WID-OS game then it loses control over the form and the value chain and simply becomes a prince amongst box-makers (going up against Nokia's volumes BTW). I think the Symbian owners are cognisant of this and that is why they've brought out the tablet & keyboard form of EPOC as 6.0 before going for the smartphones at 6.2. This way they get an early attack in on Palm as volumes are growing. To get a feel for how frontal this attack is go to http://www.infosync.no/en/news/visnyhet.asp?Link=2 for a preview.I am not sure what the effect is of a pure IP (let's face it that's what an OS is) gameplayer being a consortia. I'm not sure whether to view that as an advantage, disadvantage, or irrelevant. My opinion is that it is a slight plus in the particular case of Symbian given the twin-board structure they have, but I wonder if the theoretical aspects of that have been discussed ??? It doesn't seem to have been covered in the discussions I've seen of the IP-only QCOM. Any comments ??I should also be clear that I have significant chunks of Psion & Nokia in my portfolio. Because of where I am and the limited resources I have I incur large trading costs which are a barrier for my diversification to a 'correct' basket even if I were to be ignoring valuation issues.David
Hi David (davidsharman):You wrote:"I'm not sure if you're right about Palm having won the PDA/PIM game. I think it has achieved Kingship but only for a limited period. It remains to be seen whether it can leverage this position to the bigger WID-OS game. the point is that all it has is a fairly limited OS, a good physical form, and a nice value chain (I wish I had as much). However if if it loses the superceding WID-OS game then it loses control over the form and the value chain and simply becomes a prince amongst box-makers (going up against Nokia's volumes BTW). "I respectfully disagree with you, PALM IMO is the Gorilla in the OS PDA/PIM game. To me that game has been played out and PALM has won, it controls 70%+ of that market and is actively licensing its OS to SNE, HAND and others. PALM has an open proprietary architecture, a strong value chain, high switching costs (who wants to move all that data to another device?), it has undergone a tornado (PALM OS PDAs are seen now almost everywhere). In the PDA game Symbian and Microsoft are chimps. PALM IMO is a Gorilla in this area, a King doesn't have the kind of leverage that PALM holds.I posted this in this board earlier this year:PALM as RB and PDA Gorillahttp://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=12821680Now I do agree with you that the smartphone/WID OS game has not been played out. Symbian has neat technology and has copied some of the best aspects of the PALM OS, but that will not necessarily propel it to the lead (I wish it were that simple, Apple would have done much better).Here's a post that details Nokia's alliance with PALM:http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=12822102Note I don't own any PALM, NOK or Psion stock, so my analysis is only based on how I see the technology adoption cycle based on my reading of the Gorilla Game, Living on the Fault Line and Inside the Tornado.My take is that PALM has momentum in its favor and has a good chance of emerging the leader in this WID game, but a basket would certainly include Psion and Microsoft (not really NOK since they would not own the standard, they would just build the handsets).In my study of PUMA I see late 2001 as a critical time point for the adoption of smartphones. The market for wireless internet is already in tornado mode in Japan, and its only a matter of time for it to tornado here in the U.S. QCOM will benefit greatly as these 3G systems get adopted and if CDMA is confirmed as the standard.-xerohype
Hi Erick (xerohype),I think you're right with late 2001 being the critical moment. I'm not sure if that will be quite so apparent in the US as it does seem as if the user takeup & bandwidth rollout is Japan, EU, US in that order. Certainly i-mode's contributions to DoCoMo's bottom line will tend to accelerate rather than retard rollout. It does occur to me that the US may diverge slightly on wireless standards if MCDN is not just a flash in the pan, and that this may influence platform selection.Let's agree to disagree on gorilla Palm and chimp Symbian / Msft. The numbers will tell in time, or perhaps earlier as some of the technology hedges get unwound. In this context my interpretation of Nokia's Palm link is that it was a hedge or a useful ploy to gain experience as no volume products have come to market. We'll see on this one in three weeks as Nokia unwraps its offerings then, in Prague. If there are no Palm OSs riding EPOC then that should clarify things.Thanks for your links. I'd seen one but not the other. I'm certainly not first here and appreciate all the groundwork.David
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