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No. of Recommendations: 0
One of the 3 value traps recently mentioned.

Gratuitous poll. :)
 0% (0 Votes)
Buy
 50% (2 Votes)
Sell
 25% (1 Vote)
Hold
 0% (0 Votes)
Wait for lower prices to buy - to range trade
 25% (1 Vote)
Value Trap -- Avoid avoid avoid
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I was surprised it went up - I guess the subscription revenue?
2% revenue growth?
love the buyback, but....why is is up 17% or so since not that long ago

???????????????????????????????????????????????

I ended up selling the rest of what I had today.
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ibm - not sure - that quarter was good for a company valued so cheaply but how long does mainframe hold up? And 'cognitive' was down. I was uninspired. I am currently in think-um mode on it. I previously moved my position size to dink mode. i have no edge - this is the same wrinkle as JNJ but under a different wrapper.

what was the other - oracle? I took advantage of the move back up to move it to dink level too.

course, with me....listen and not learn...
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p.s.

to be blunt, I thought it would down today
Ml says they 'beat expected results'
no change to targets from company
there is anticipation that NA sales will be recovering

I don't know
I took my profit and went away
if you believe in the shift to subscriptions (and therefore ignore product growth)
and you believe a turn is coming...

but I took my profit and went
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it is a wrapper around the same idea

I've decided to move on - keeping a dink in jnj
but nothing else in my VT list
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I ALWAYS think my stocks will go up ... and fast. wink wink ;)

no change to targets from company

They only give updates annually if it matters.


I am top-down with low hurdles and expectations. A+ balance sheet. Strong cash flow. They seem smart with asset allocation -- not p'ing money away. I like buybacks because Munger once said a thousand years ago to pay attention to cannabils and I am a cool-aid drinking groupie. Taxable account and I'm dumb enough to let the tax tail wag the dog -- short term gains at the moment. Super-dink so not going to matter much in the grand scheme. P/E isn't horrible if you exclude $4B in cash. Possible M/A.

VL suggests 3-8% annual gains 3-5 years out on $99 price and it's at $116! That gives me pause but with slow rev growth + $4b balance sheet + cash flow + buybacks + possible M/A 6-9% EPS growth seems reasonable, no? Naj wouldn't get out of bed for that and I know you're looking for bigger upside and a catalyst too. The big buyback could prevent this from falling quickly if we have a quick melt-down so maybe you can rotate from it to something else -- but I'm reaching and rationalizing now.

I think this might have gotten hurt and lagged Nov17-Jun18 because it wouldn't directly benefit from US Corp. tax cuts. I think that might have given me a good price to get in. That said, I got a quick gain and once my last goes off to college I'm moving around and going to be a renter for life. Might as well start small now. Woo hoo!

Don't like seeing you sell for sure. Reconsider please. :)
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but nothing else in my VT list

Boo! Just kidding.
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revenue decision only for me - no edge, but I hear you - remove yourself from the stigma of the revenue growth and it all makes you feel good inside - and it is a real company making real money at their level of SGA...
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ibm - not sure

The mainframe product cycle last about 3 to 4 Qtrs and then moderates back to historical level. Now, Azure had 89% yoy cloud revenue increase and compare that to IBM. My mental model for IBM is $70~$73 B revenue as the base case with $8 to $9B profits and can grow low single digit. For now, it is slowly declining towards that base case...

There is no growth, the debt is growing at steady clip due to buybacks and is now $45B and the dividends have steadily increased and it will take $6 B to service dividends. I don't know when the management will his the brakes on the buyback and dividend.. may not until they fire Rometty. I think Buffett did a very smart think by getting out. Kudos for pulling out of IBM.
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Chief Executive Gil Shwed said an annual survey conducted by the company showed that most of its shareholders preferred a share buyback to a dividend, noting ...

Has anyone seen any proof that this survey was conducted? Any results? Did they just poll the top 10 holders or ones that call into IR? Were any of you surveyed? Do any of you talk to IR?



From the call:

I think it's based on feedback that we received from shareholders. I mean, Tal and Kip and -- I mean, our IR team is doing a lot of work to really get quantitative data, to survey investors about those preferences. I think we do see that there is a potential to increase the buyback. We've also analyzed the economical effects on that and we see that they were positive. So I think overall, it's a good decision. I think we have the resources. I think we have the upside potential. So hopefully, it will have the positive effect moving forward. It doesn't impact our ability or our motivation to execute some acquisitions. And I hope that we will find the right companies, and we will execute some of these acquisitions even though in the amount of the universe that we are in and the innovation that we have internally in Check Point, it's not easy to find the right acquisition. And right now, by the way, I'm seeing plenty of innovation coming from within Check Point to the marketplace


"I think it is based on..."?

You think it is based on, or, it is based on???

Not that material to me but I'm curious.
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I don't know.

But I do think value guys own CHKP so I think that buybacks would be a good method of returning capital to shareholders that value guys would like. Wouldn't be logical for Palo.

I like CHKP's buyback - it is steady each quarter like a DCA program. I just wish they would do higher top line growth too, but they haven't done much M&A so you assume doing M&A is not so easy. But I'm speaking from ignorance here.
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I like CHKP's buyback - it is steady each quarter like a DCA program. I just wish they would do higher top line growth too, but they haven't done much M&A so you assume doing M&A is not so easy.

And just like that -- they buy something!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/check-point-profit-tops-estim...

Network security provider Check Point Software Technologies <CHKP.O> reported quarterly net profit that beat expectations and acquired Israel's Dome9 to strengthen its cloud security position but its fourth quarter outlook sent shares falling.

Chief Executive Gil Shwed said on Wednesday the acquisition will reduce fourth quarter adjusted earnings by 2-4 cents a share.

For the fourth quarter, Israel-based Check Point forecast adjusted earnings per share of $1.56-$1.67 on revenue of $520 million-$528 million. Analysts on average estimated earnings of $1.65 a share on revenue of $515 million.
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yeah, they spent 180m for a company doing 10m in sales and losing money
at 180m a blip
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Sold it today...
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