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I posted a poll last year about the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage. See the poll here:

http://boards.fool.com/poll-take-two-sell-in-may-poll-299530...

As it turned out, selling in April made more sense, as the S+P hit a high April 2, a lower high May 1, then dropped until the first week of June. It then began a slow climb back, but did not pass the April high until the first week of Sept.

So, for 2013, should one sell in April?
No. I do not think there are any seasonal effects that are tradable.
No. While I think there is some truth to this, I do not think it applies this year.
Yes. I don't care about seasonality, I just think the market is over-priced.
Yes. I think there is some truth to it, and this year for sure.
Forget the S+P! Instead, buy (choose one: gold, real estate, short the yen, go long the Looney etc)

Click here to see results so far.

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I think that the market is not over priced, but the risks are very high, and the technical s are telling us we are near a multi-year top.

I cannot tell how far the market will drop from the new all time highs. I do believe that this next drop will be the last buying opportunity for the next 20 years.

Cheers
Qazulight
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If you have rules set in advance about when it's time to sell, you should sell - or not - according to those rules.

If you don't have rules set in advance about when to sell, you should sell and sit out while you study the market and your personal style and can form such rules.

Potentially the rules come in four parts:

a) when to give up on a bad investment and bail out
b) when to lose patience with a flat investment and move on
c) when to take profit on a successful investment
d) general-market rules, calendar rules, and other things that aren't about the individual investment but modify or override the previous three parts

Some parts may combine or not apply, depending...
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... form such rules...
a) when to give up on a bad investment and bail out
b) when to lose patience with a flat investment and move on
c) when to take profit on a successful investment...


Warrl,

You've certainly hit the nail on the head. I would like to know what rules have been formed by the wiser, long-time investors with a lot of success over the years. What are some of their rules?

;-)
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... form such rules...
a) when to give up on a bad investment and bail out
b) when to lose patience with a flat investment and move on
c) when to take profit on a successful investment...

Warrl,

You've certainly hit the nail on the head. I would like to know what rules have been formed by the wiser, long-time investors with a lot of success over the years. What are some of their rules?


The single best place I know of for forming such rules is the Mechanical Investing board here at TMF.

However, they develop rules of a certain specific sort. I don't happen to use that sort of rule. The single biggest takeaway from that board is to HAVE such rules, and to follow them regardless of emotion.
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Sold a couple USian oils last week. Sold a couple European oils today. Sold my pipeline MLPs today...they have risen so much since the start of the year the yield no longer is attractive enough to justify dealing with the K1s.

Steve
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NH: ...the wiser, long-time investors [(achooo!)] over the years. What are some of their rules?


Hmmm, I thought I had the cheat sheet right here on my desk somewhere, oh yes:


Rules for Market Choices

Cleansing the mind of irrationalities through repentance of past wrong-doing followed by
self-examination,
solicitous prayer,
meditation towards effective action;

building resistance to temptations of
yielding to short-term fears and desires or
blindly following social fads or inherited superstitions;

cold calm appraisal of assets relative to price for current strength and potential for growth.... [it gets illegible here]...


...Oh Wait, wasn't this the last page of my lost check list on prepping for sex clubs in the 80's? ;-)

david fb
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Votes in this years poll are very close to last-years. Not really surprising, but interesting.

Like last year, 2/3rds are in favor of bailing out now, or very soon. This indeed was the correct call last year. BUT, it only worked if your timing was impeccable. The traditional advice is to return in Nov. Nov 1st last year, the S+P was a few dollars higher than the April high. Also, Nov 6th. Otherwise, it was lower all of Nov. So, if you re-entered anytime in Nov except those two days, you gained. A few bucks. If your stocks mirror the S+P. If you thought the dip in May was enough, and got back in in June (against the advice of the rhyme), you did better.

Historically, the advice works. Maybe there is no "reason" for it to work, but it does:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/10/08/sel...

I voted for "yes, I think there is some truth to it, and this year for sure". The truth? Read the Forbes article. This year?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX

That looks like a "broad top" as Wendy mentions in her "Control Panel" post this week. Or, phrased another way, there seems to be more risk to the downside after several months of steady climb with only a few minor dips.

I would not wait unitl May if one wants to sell. We are not the only ones aware of this phenomenon, and there is always a tendency to front-run such events.

Just my opinion.

Cheers,

Doug
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