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possibly everybody here is bored with yield curve but one more post

It is true that all recessions since 1960 have been preceded by an inverted yield curve (commonly defined these days as when the 2-Year U.S. Treasury yields more than the 10-Year U.S. Treasury), but the problem is that too many people have recently been expanding this relationship to a flattening yield curve as well. Yes, the yield curve has been flattening—the spread between the 10-Year and 2-Year has narrowed from ~130 basis points at the beginning of 2017 to 48 basis points now—but crossing the inversion point is far from imminent.

A yield curve as flat as it is now does not always lead to an inverted yield curve and even if it does, the lag time can be years before it occurs.

What’s more, some of the best stock market returns in history have come after the yield curve became flatter than it is now, including after 1984, 1988, 1994, and 2005 (see chart 2 on page 2; arrows in lower S&P 500 panel represent when the 10-2 spread first became as narrow as it is currently).

In fact, the 10-2 spread was relatively flat for the entirety of the 1994-2000 period, the greatest stock market run in history. So, are we worried about the yield curve signaling a possible recession is on the way? No, not at this stage.

on earnings

Lindsey Bell, investment strategist at CFRA, told MarketWatch that nearly 80% of the companies that have reported so far have beaten earning estimates, while about four out six companies have outperform on sales. “Much better than historical standards of 66% and 55%, respectively,”
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