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hi Jim

I won't X-post --just a link. Take a look and let me know if you think its fair and balanced as they say at Fox. I started by liking them from your notes and went on to hating them after looking at their lot decade of death and went back to liking them

http://boards.fool.com/power-one-back-from-the-dead-28890213...

Don't have a clue if this new direction is sustainable but am very impressed with the turnaround so far
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Hi Prof,

That's an excellent summary and is pretty much what I had found out.

I think a key to the turnaround is the change in CEO which happened a couple of years ago. I can't remember the details or who noticed what, but the new(ish) CEO certainly appears to be the one behind the turnaround.

Add in the recent addition of two board members from the solar industry, adding additional perspective, and I think the company has room to grow in the inverter field.

Plus, it's not writing off the legacy business, but saving that, as well. For the quarter, it operated just shy of break even for the first time in a long time and the current CEO has said that the plan is to continue along that recovery path.

Cheers,
Jim
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hi Jim

I asked the question why the amazing growth for the last few Qs--both out loud and to myself. With no one client at more than 10% it was a mystery because I am so clueless about this sector

The answer is big spending in Germany that is not going to be in place in 2011. It is unlikely that the US is going to pour money into alternative energy and the rest of the world may not have the cash. Germany is doing pretty well during this recession and had money to spend.

I am putting a link here to an article that outlines the risks and gives a rough idea of value. The tenuous nature of 2011 would make me hesitant to buy without a lot of spare room to fall. At $8 it may not be quite there.

Read the comments too--excellent discussion

http://seekingalpha.com/article/235322-power-one-is-a-steal-...
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Hi Prof,

Yeah, I saw that. Have you seen this one, which also discusses a decline in 2011? http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10918447/1/solar-stock... This is all I could find to explain the downdraft over the last couple of days.

The question is, what will happen after 2011? Everyone knows about the government subsidies for solar (e.g. Germany), but not many realize that oil (and probably coal) is also subsidized. And, as technology continues to improve, the need for those subsidies declines as the cost for solar and wind energy comes down (called grid parity, when it matches the cost of other sources, like coal).

Solar and wind power are here to stay and will become more important for electricity as global warming concerns continue to ramp up (putting pressure on coal for electricity). Energy needs are going up, not down, as well. That's a long-term trend. I don't think the numbers for alternative energy given earlier are unreasonable. The exact timing might slip a little, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the predictions are too low.

Plus, China is really big on getting solar and wind energy to be bigger parts of their total, and Power-One is a player there, too. Even the U.S. is getting in on the act to a bigger extent.

Yes, some short term concerns, but a long-term winner, I think.

Cheers,
Jim
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Further notes just made on the Prof's thread over on Value Hounds: http://boards.fool.com/the-us-has-no-will-to-do-anything-gre...

Cheers,
Jim
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