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No. of Recommendations: 2
Sometimes, in an attempt to find "the next best thing" you come up with gold. We stumbled upon Blueprint when looking at LOXO.

Sometimes you come up with lead. Like Turning Point when looking into additional precision medicine companies.

Now, the potential for TP is that its lead compound ***may*** have some utility for NSCLC with brain mets, which could possibly make it a best in class drug.

BUT.

This is based on < 10 patients.

AND

Grade 5 TEAEs: respiratory failure (n=2), sepsis, sudden death (n=1 each); Only the case of sudden death was determined to be possibly related to treatment

https://tptherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/TPX-0005-ASCO-...
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/asco-death-turning-poi...


This is a perfect example to peer into my investing style, and what I find separates newbies from the Cosmids.

Those that are buying into the TP "precision medicine story" right now are buying what appears to be an inferior company to BPMC. There is just less of a pipeline, and definitely less data. But a third of the market cap and half the stock price, and no data read outs until 2H 2020. Newbies, bottom feeders, and risk takers buy into TP to try to maximize gains, but do not necessarily see that TP could easily get cut in half or more with just 1-2 more patient deaths in the trials as they try to catch lightning in a bottle. Chasing dragons like this is bad for your well being! You might get lucky, you might catch the momentum wave early, but if you are not trying to play momentum, you are buying into a company with minimal data, some patient safety yellow/red flags, and a huge question mark. Investing into TP "because you believe in the story" is a wish and an easy way to get turned off of biotech.

To put this in another perspective, even if TP were to triple, if it was a 5b company, and there were no further safety issues after a P2 trial that showed good efficacy, then TP would probably still be undervalued as it has a huge potential TAM. But there is still too much unknown for me to invest, and there are way better places for my money until some of this risk gets taken off the table.
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Excellent insight Fuma. A je ne se quoi of what I could not articulate.

Cosmid
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Your reasoning is well thought out and articulated.

And as for TP itself, this scares me, and makes me not look any further at the company:

BUT.

This is based on < 10 patients.

AND

Grade 5 TEAEs: respiratory failure (n=2), sepsis, sudden death (n=1 each); Only the case of sudden death was determined to be possibly related to treatment


To encounter such severe complications in roughly half the patients in this nano-trial means to me that either the side effects defeat any therapeutic benefit, or that the patients were way too frail to be appropriate subjects to start with.

=sheila
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To encounter such severe complications in roughly half the patients in this nano-trial means to me that either the side effects defeat any therapeutic benefit, or that the patients were way too frail to be appropriate subjects to start with.

I agree, but should clarify. The N of <10 is the number of patients with metastatic brain disease for which TP & their fan base are likely going to advertise (and if it persists with a larger N, than I agree)... the ADR rate is off of ~85 patients, so its probably more like 5%. It's worth noting that the FDA has blackboxed for much, much, less (droperidol comes to mind, zofran for pregnancy as well).

I use TP more as an example of a "me too" company that may ride the coat tails of precision medicine, but hasnt lived up to the hype.
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