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Despite the rising tide of demographics going against them, the Republicans will do well in the 2014 mid-term elections. They will probably pick up quite a few house seats and even a handful of senate seats. 2014 election results will then be used as evidence that the Republican party does not have a demographics problem which will lead to arrogance and overconfidence as they get slaughtered in 2016.

The reasons for all of this are the nature of the elections. Turnout is generally lower in mid-term elections and Republicans will do better with lower turnout (why do you think they work so hard to suppress voter turnout?). Also, in the senate the Democrats have far more incumbent seats up for election as well as a couple of retiring senators in generally conservative states (as well as Kerry's seat in Mass, which Scott Brown has to be heavily favored for).

In 2016 there will be a presidential contest which will increase turnout and the demographic tide will be that much higher.
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