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Pretty much what WuLong said. Compare the baselines to what's happening and what we'd expect without AGW, accounting for statistical significance.

Thats the problem, there is none of that available for tornados in IN in Jan. Pucksfool and others just find some weather they consider unusual and then run with it. People on this board generally eat it up.

Off the top of my head, I can't say for sure. But if I recall correctly, the projected warming trends from IPCC4 for the next few decades under business-as-usual were about 0.18 C/decade, with a standard deviation of 0.15 C.

Assuming a normal distribution, independence between subsequent decades, and no change in solar or aerosol forcings, this gives a 90% probability range of +0.11 -- +0.95 C over the next 30 years. So: If the warming is less than 0.11 degrees, and you have a 95% certainty that the models overestimate the forcing.

None of this is clear in the IPCC report, but I like your attempt. Are you saying that the model mean is the projection we should be comparing against?
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