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With the economy seemingly teetering, what are your predictions for the prime rate in the coming months and years?

Looks like it may be dropping, but who knows?

Vermonter
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The economy is not teetering.

I submit for your reading pleasure, what one of my heroes, Saul, has posted over on Saul's Investing Discussions:

Author: SaulR80683 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore)
Number: 60754 of 60764
Subject: Re: Putting the pieces together
Date: 10/19/2019 1:01 PM
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I've given you some of Bert's thoughts, and those of Charles Schwab. Here'a another view related to Bear's take. I just received a marketing email from Mitch Zacks, the eponymous head of Zacks Investment Management, and a really smart guy. Here are some excerpts, edited and shortened. Bolding is mostly mine..:


"Are Investors Over-Compensating for Recession Risk?

October kicked off with some weak economic reports. … U.S. factory activity continued its slump, with the manufacturing index falling to its lowest level (47.8) since June 2009. Global manufacturing activity also remained firmly in negative territory in September, posting its fifth consecutive month of contraction. Nearly every major economy took a hit, the report said. Markets were rattled by this data, and recession chatter followed.

I’ve seen this pattern more in 2019 than perhaps any other year in this decade-long economic expansion: market watchers and prognosticators cling to the slightest whiff of economic weakness and use it to declare imminent recession. Whether it’s the trade war, the inverted yield curve, weak corporate earnings, negative interest rates, or some other concern, the refrain is that this economic cycle is doomed – soon.

There’s also been a notable response in the equity markets to rising fear of recession. I’ve been observing a notable rotation away from cyclical sectors and towards defensive sectors. In the third quarter, Utilities was the top performing sector (+9.3%), followed by Real Estate (+7.7%) and Consumer Staples (+6.1%). Since September 30, 2018 (roughly over the last year), Consumer Staples and Utilities have been at the top of the performance chain, with Staples outperforming Information Technology by a margin of 2-to-1 and Utilities outperforming by a margin of 3-to-1 (Saul: Are Utilities and Consumer Staples really where you want to be?)

Investors have also been hedging in other ways. There are nearly 2.5 times the amount of put options on the S&P 500 Index as there are call options, and the cost of hedging has soared to one-year highs across several equity benchmarks.

The demand in the market to go defensive is clearly high, but in my view, investors might be over-compensating – and over-paying – to defend portfolios against a recession that may not be as imminent as many believe.

As investors rotate, or consider rotating, into traditionally defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples, many may not realize that the Utilities sector’s P/E ratio is at an all-time high. The Utilities sector’s P/E has risen ahead of previous recessions as investors have made similar moves, but never to this degree. It is now the most overvalued sector, in my view. Consumer Staples is not far behind, which has me convinced that investors are over-playing the defensive hand and paying dearly for it.

The Recession May Not Be as Near as Many Believe

Manufacturing data was quite weak and there are clear signs that global growth is slowing…. But few reports point out that manufacturing only makes up 10% of U.S. economic output, and that the U.S. and global economy are still expected to grow north of 2% in 2019. Service Sectorsin most developed countries remain strong and expanding, and the U.S. consumer – which comprises some 70% to total U.S. GDP – continues to spend at a healthy clip….

I’ll share a few more data points to support my argument. Small businesses, which are often considered a key growth engine for the U.S. economy, have been increasingly reporting labor shortages, where 57% of owners have said they’re hiring or trying to hire. A majority of these business owners have reported finding few, if any, qualified applicants for open positions. This points to strength in economic activity, and also points to a skilled labor shortage in the US (a good problem to have, in my view). A key takeaway from the NFIB Small Business Jobs Report is that “hiring has slowed down, but it’s due to the inability to find qualified workers, not because of a lack of customers.”

The U.S. consumer is another proxy for the health of the U.S. economy, and signs point to steady spending as we enter the holiday shopping season. Total retail sales for the June 2019 - August 2019 period was up 3.7% from the same period the previous year, with a particularly strong showing in July. In the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing report, the statement from the Retail Trade sector was that “business continues to pick up as we quickly approach Q4. Week by week, we inch closer to a much-anticipated holiday retail season, which requires not only last-minute buys, but a push to fill open positions.”

Finally, data in the broad labor market also offers evidence of the U.S. economy’s stability. Job growth as measured by non-farm payrolls remains strong, with reports last showing that the U.S. added 136,000 jobs in September, bringing the jobless rate (3.5%) – its lowest level in 50 years."



Just some more thoughts from smart people to help you relax on the weekend.

Saul
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No. of Recommendations: 3
But what is the predicted prime rate?
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No. of Recommendations: 3
But what is the predicted prime rate?

</snip>


Google is your friend.

Fed Rate Cuts Not Likely Done Yet
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-in...

The bank prime lending rate will decline to 4.75% after the October cut. Rates on auto loans and consumer loans will likely edge down for borrowers with good credit. The decline in rates is likely to boost the housing market — by making mortgages easier to afford — and perhaps consumer lending, but it will not boost business borrowing much because of all the economic uncertainty.

</snip>


intercst
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Thanks, intercst. Good reading.

Vermonter
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But what is the predicted prime rate?

</snip>

Google is your friend.


------------------

Duck Duck Go is also your friend but with the added benefit that he doesn't build a dossier on you.
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With the economy seemingly teetering, what are your predictions for the prime rate in the coming months and years?
Looks like it may be dropping, but who knows?


I have made predictions like this--mainly to myself--and had ~50% success rate. That may sound OK, but it's essentially a coin flip. I was pretty sure that interest rates couldn't stay low too much longer earlier in this decade, and so went with only short term bonds in the bond part of my portfolio, juiced with some bond-like investments. That was actually a portfolio drag, until I was eventually correct, but only for a short time until rates went down again.

It's better to try to construct your portfolio where your estimates/predictions/guesses don't matter. That is, whether interest rates or earnings or investor sentiment go up or down or nowhere, it doesn't matter. Some things are cyclical...with potentially long cycles...so you may need to hold some things for a couple decades before they come around again. That's why some things are better suited for your long term money.

But, getting on the "bonds go up when rates go down" train *after* things have started means that "common wisdom" is baked into prices, and you have to out-guess people who do it for a living to beat the XYZ market. And that can sometimes be done if you have some advantage over those people (long time horizon vs. having to beat a benchmark every quarter to retain your job). You'd better know what your advantages are if you hope to use them.

Another "sort of advantage" with interest rates is if you own a home with a fixed mortgage, you can hold that rate when interest goes up, but refinance when rates go down.

All that said, I think rates will get cut at least twice because politicians believe that people conflate the economy with political leadership (and therefore electability). Demographics also push against having a lot of inflation, and imminent inflation would press rates to rise. I don't have a lot riding on that predication though. Well, maybe a little, because if I were truly neutral my bonds would be 50/50 regular and iBonds, and I have maybe 15% or 20% of my bonds in iBond ETFs. I started to think about rearranging that in August, but my regular bond funds were up ~8.5% with the iBonds at less than 2%, so I left it all alone. I think I'll just steer new contributions to the iBonds to move towards balance since I've been going on and on about being agnostic to predictions.
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