NajdorfSicilian

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Retirement Investing board. 3:13 PM

Re: options

That infers that buying puts would be a good strategy, since it would be nearly the exact opposite strategy within a zero-sum market?

It does not.


Deep OTM puts are often referred to as a profitable strategy but the vol [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 3:10 PM

Re: My 2018 review

ALNY up 8% since purchase, adding.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Stereo 8 board. 3:09 PM

Re: Apollo and Arconic

I'm up 12% on my Apollo purchases, now what? ;)

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Retirement Investing board. 1:25 PM

Re: options

Selling covered calls is the worst retail strategy there is, bar none.

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the Last RoundUp board. 11:50 AM

LULU

As I'm sure some monkeys saw, LULU pre-announced better SSS possibly as high as mid-teens, and EPS 5-7c better representing 30% growth at the midpoint.

In the past 3 years, their Q4 results have still beaten their improved [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 11:33 AM

Re: FMNA and FRE preferreds

I added a little under $6 to reduce my cost basis, makes up a tiny bit for the shellacking in tech today.


Big rally in 2019 to over $9 currently.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 8:40 PM

Re: VRX - Some notes from recent news

BHC trading at 7.8x ebitda estimates, ebitda estimated to trough this year.

BHC likely to show LSD organic growth this year. They paid down $1bn of debt last year but still 6.7x net debt which is still very high but unsecured 2025 debt [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:31 PM

Re: Tesla: Major Progress, Time to Reconsider?

The only think Tesla is ahead of the curve in is battery technology. Which may make it worth their market cap if they perfect it.

The product reviews are bad, people are cancelling their deposits after not getting deliveries for several [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:01 PM

Re: 2019 Predictions

Amazon is 49% of US online sales, of which 53% are third-party sales. They are 5% of total sales, so really 2.5% of retail is actually sold by Amazon.

Walmart is 2nd in online sales.

$1 of every $40 bucks.


Anti-trust [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Against The Spread board. 10:54 PM

Re: Divisional Round

broke even on these [was larger on the teaser]
and won Saints h2 once it became apparent we couldn't move the ball on their press WR coverage and I thought CB Douglas was out.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:16 PM

Re: The thing about AMZN/Mongo

'Your margin is my opportunity.' ~ Jeff Bezos

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the Against The Spread board. 12:27 PM

Divisional Round

I like the Rams/Saints teaser at -105,
SDG ML
and
Colts ATS

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Against The Spread board. 12:26 PM

Re: Saints -300 ml

That was the bargain of the month in a 6-TD laugher by NOS.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:50 AM

Re: Stars Update

Stars has plummeted with other value and casino stocks, down from 11x to 7.7x however:

1) Won a reversal of a $870m lawsuit in Kentucky at the Appeals Court,
and
2) Signed with the NBA as the 'official' gaming operator for [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:41 AM

Re: PENN

Scratch that ebitda calc, I typed in the wrong data. Getting 6.5x ebitda for 2019e and 15% normalized FCF yield now.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 11:38 AM

Re: PENN

Stock was routed in the selloff and year-end tax loss selling. Has begun to rebound nicely. Trading at 5x ebitdar after master lease payments.

Very, very cheap. As is MGM.

Only buy if you think the economy is and will be fine.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 4:06 PM

Re: Just wondering

Probably 65% AWS, 30% Ads, 5% retail.

OpMargin likely to grow to double-digits next year.

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the Last RoundUp board. 2:14 PM

Just wondering

Since Amazon is now predicted to make ~$17 Billion in Operating Income this year, will people finally stop saying they 'don't make any money?'


Prob not, lol.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Last RoundUp board. 2:52 PM

Re: Poll: Who win the SB?

Best QB left is Unstoppable Playoff God Nick Foles, surely?

5 playoff games, left with the lead all 5x including his one loss to Brees who won on a last-second FG after the iggles K kicked it out of bounds gifting the Saints the ball at the [more]

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 4:44 PM

Don't bet against Nick Foles

Not his finest performance...until the game-winning TD drive that is.

Gonna need to score a lot more than 16 pts to beat Saints.


Luckily, their D isn't nearly as good as Chicago's is.