NajdorfSicilian

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul’s Investing Discussions board. 2:09 PM

Re: Saul's Portfolio at the end of August

SNOW seems like an exciting firm, but:

Buying back employee RSUs to prevent dilution, which is already under 1% per year.


I see 300.3m diluted-average shares on Jan 2022
and
318.4 diluted-average shares [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 3:27 PM

Re: SWIFT losing speed?

Accepting payments in RMB is all well and good until they devalue their currency by two-thirds overnight, as they did in the 90s.

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:52 PM

Re: Kyle Bass: Another 30 - 40% Drop in 2022 Likely

Kyle Bass has been so wrong for so long about multiple investing decisions it's amazing anyone would listen to him.

'Bass launched Hayman Capital Management in late 2005 in Dallas and in 2007 the fund gained 200% on bets against the [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 12:48 PM

Re: Fed will control the bottom

The bottom will happen months before the Fed starts to cut rates.

Bet you anything.

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:49 PM

Re: To nibble or to wait?

You know what they call people who buy at the bottom....?






Liars.

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul’s Investing Discussions board. 2:48 PM

Re: Macro Conditions and Some of Our Companies

Laney: "Prince talked about his company being an above 40% grower in the future"

Saul: "No, he said something like that as they would grow in the 40's for the next 5 years or so, at worst, he feels comfortable in [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul’s Investing Discussions board. 6:56 PM

Re: SNOW - Isn't this a solid, long term holding

It's hard to say when every single person who has bought and held the stock is now underwater. All of them.

Growth slowing from 84% this Q to forecast 72% next Q.

People expect better from SNOW, it's just that simple.

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul’s Investing Discussions board. 4:30 PM

Re: Snow Earnings

Snowflake Inc. reported a narrower loss and better-than-expected revenue in the first quarter.

The company, which provides cloud data warehousing software, narrowed its net loss to $165.8 million, or loss of 53 cents a share, in the quarter [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Mechanical Investing board. 11:34 AM

Re: CAPE post-discovery results

CAPE is unambiguously a terrible predictor, for many reasons. It would have kept you out of the whole runup since 2002 except for Sept 2008 when it flashed a buy signal and then back to a sell signal the following month!

10 years ago, CAPE [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:24 PM

Re: OT: Jim & DG

Just a reminder to everyone that leverage is a bad idea.
This is one of those threads which does not fall into the prudent investing category.
I'm not prudent.

Jim

I have always disagreed with Jim on [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 2:26 PM

Re: Why is Berkshire buying now?

1) This is nothing like the 08-09 GFC where it was a real possibility that almost every bank and FI might fail. 'Normal' companies were at much greater risk of not being able to pay their debts thus Chp 11 [or 7!] and equity holders would be [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Macro Economic Trends and Risks board. 4:04 PM

Re: Homeless Solution

Obviously, this is a huge problem with no easy solution. As you note, taking care of the mentally ill needs to be job #1 to get anywhere with reducing the homeless population. If they go off their meds they can never be integrated into functional [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Berkshire Hathaway board. 12:49 PM

Re: Poll: How low Berkshire will go in this mark

It was 16+ PE during the tech falloff in late 2011 and again in mid-2012. But not since!

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Saul’s Investing Discussions board. 5:41 PM

Re: Cloudflare - my issues with it

Hi Eric, I had a few questions on your post:

and maintains a very durable rate of growth, say 48% in ‘23, 46% in ‘24, down to 40% ‘27.

How likely is it for their slowdown to be a tiny, annual step-function slowdown of 2% per [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Liquid Lounge board. 10:36 AM

Re: Now to see what happens

Shocked that they closed Deranged Monkey Criticism, which only had 25k posts on investing, I noted that at ITF, doubt anything will come of it.

Al- good to see you around these parts. I'm thinking I missed my window to buy my Miami Beach [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Improve the Fool board. 12:43 PM

Re: Deranged Monkey Criticism

Some great examples of the investing discussions that were held:

https://boards.fool.com/playing-defense-28075090.aspx?sort=r...

[more]

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NajdorfSicilian posted to the Improve the Fool board. 12:18 PM

Deranged Monkey Criticism

Hi TMF, the above named board was, in fact, an investing board, with thousands of posts over the years about Investing specifically. With some of the best investment posters ever at TMF like HowardRoark.

Why was it closed?

tks,

Boards Post

NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:39 PM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

Replying to myself because the facts are still at odds with what you read in the media and from underperforming HFs:

2019: Worldwide Net sales of equity funds* was $66 billion.
2020: Worldwide Net sales of equity funds* was $140 [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the Deranged Monkey Criticism board. 4:17 PM

Re: Do you pay someone to manage money?

This time period reminds me of the late '90's in one respect. Investors were going crazy for tech and net-related investments. Value stocks were languishing and net stocks were bid to the moon. A few years later it all [more]

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NajdorfSicilian replied to the 77's Foolish House of Pigskin board. 1:51 PM

Re: That's all she wrote...

Had some great times and great arguments here. Definitely learned too much about punters.