PaulWBryant

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:22 PM

Re: SQ - analyst meeting

Thanks for the response, Texmex. You said I don't see the GPV trending down much below 25%/y as the bigger merchants are growing much faster (50%) and forming a larger portion of the company's GPV. I found this in the conference call [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:46 AM

Re: SQ - analyst meeting

Putting together the TAM of the total GPV, growth of the larger sellers, and subscription rev growth I cannot see any sharp slow down in rev growth. The concern seems to be that Square goes after bigger merchants they will not be able to grow GPV [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:16 AM

Re: My ongoing case FOR Cavana

For Quarter ending March 2019
Revenue 755.234 / Shares outstanding (diluted) 41.352 = 18.264 Revenue per share

imuafool,

The confusion about the PS ratio is not due to your method, it's due to the share count [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:31 AM

Re: My case against Carvana

If you want a comparison, you should use the one that was mentioned when Carvana was brought to the board and that is Amazon.

Randy,

I'm sure you mean well, but comparing any company to Amazon is more than a lowercase [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 1:25 PM

My case against Carvana

This is so simple it will seem simplistic, but it's really just the math.

In 2018, Carvana's revenue was almost $2 billion. But gross profit was only about $200m. That's a 10% Gross Margin.

To make that $200m of profit, [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 1:52 PM

Evaluating companies, not timing

Ethan did a great job of bringing that market timing thread back to what I was discussing yesterday: not market timing, but evaluating companies (and their valuations): [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 1:35 PM

Re: Valuations coming unhinged

How much growth is baked in is directly related to how fast gross profit is increasing and how large the forward TAM is.

I think what you meant is:

How much growth is baked in is directly related to how fast gross profit [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:25 PM

Valuations coming unhinged

I don't want to call these stocks bubbles unto themselves, but perhaps there are less accurate things one could call them.

Stock Mkt Cap Revenue Rev Growth % Billings P/S Ratio P/Billings Hype Factor
ZS 11b 243m 65% 330 44 32 [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:14 PM

Re: Roku question

Fieldy,

This seems totally huge:

1. Selling publishers’ inventory: When people watch ad-supported publishers on Roku, the platform gets access to sell some of the publisher’s inventory in exchange for the extended audience [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:33 PM

Re: NEWR Q4 Earnings and New Platform

I’d be curious to hear if Bear sees things differently as he’s a little more adept with the numbers than I am and clearly knows New Relic better than just about anyone.

Umm...I don't know about that, Stock"novice." I was [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:55 AM

Roku question

I know some of you are in Roku. I have a Roku and so I am one of the 29 million "active accounts," I suppose. But obviously I don't pay them. I also don't remember seeing many (any?) ads on the platform. And when I use Roku, I have [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:50 AM

Re: What I Did With TTD & Green on Cramer

Reference thread for mentioning Bear in good humor

Joel just keeps poking the Bear.

Yes, I was wrong. Interesting that I had those concerns after Q4 2017 where they turned in 42% revenue growth. Others have expressed similar [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:15 PM

Re: Why I sold out of TTD

FlyFisher22,

That was an incredible post. Unfortunately it's a bit hard to read. To everyone: when you use the "pre" tag for a table, make sure to only use it around the table data itself, not the entire [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:13 PM

Re: TTD raw numbers

So assuming they do in fact beat again as AJ suggests....next quarter would be 43%

This is an unreasonable assumption.

I look back to the December 2017 quarter where they grew "only" 42% (and yet had what at the [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:26 PM

TTD raw numbers

Sometimes raw numbers can be helpful. The difference between 41% growth and 50% growth might not be as much as you think. If you're selling on 41% growth you're telling me that the difference between selling and buying is the difference [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:58 AM

Re: Request for NEWR thoughts

Thanks for the thoughts, everyone.

* they spent a decent amount of time on their call outlining a move upmarket, suggesting a little more work to generate business (potential operating leverage issue)

That's insightful, [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:06 AM

Re: TTD Earnings...

Regarding the earnings call - I personally never buy before the release - this is like gambling in a casino and not investing.

Freddy, well put. This may be what I was trying to say in that other thread, which I won't start back [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:17 PM

Re: 15% is a whole lot

This is great advice, I would agree that 10% really should be the max for just about everybody. I've had 20% positions before and when they drop 20% in a day and 40% or more in a week/month it really hurts and is hard to come back [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:21 AM

Re: 15% is a whole lot

Dreamer: SAIL is down 28% today. Probably would have been a better example to lead with.

IRDoc: A 15% drop in a 15% position is still just 2.25% of the overall portfolio.

I think I was unclear. The "15%" I [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:28 AM

15% is a whole lot

My investing portfolio (including the cash component) is 99% of my net worth. I take money out every month or two to live on, but other than that, it is all I have. Therefore, I try to make sure not to lose too much of it at a time.

Today is [more]