PaulWBryant

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:35 PM

Re: Cloudera 4th quarter results

I have room for some of these very unpopular teens not getting invited to the prom, but many of them turn out to be pretty successful later on in life.

The market is saying otherwise. But good luck. If you think you know something [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:14 PM

Thanks for the AYX responses

So here are my takeaways:

1) AYX is growing really fast -- not just 50%+ but more like 60%+. 605 allowed them to push the growth into the future, but with 606 we'll see the growth more in real time. Lumpiness will probably ensue, as the [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:28 AM

Re: AYX thoughts

Bear,

their contract duration varies between 1 and 3 years with an average contract duration of 2 years. They bill one year in advance as most SaaS companies.

Niki

Thanks Niki. Then why do you think their Dec Q [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 9:11 PM

AYX thoughts

Saul asked: And what do you guys think about what happened when ASC 606 hit Alteryx ... and revenue jumped some huge amount overnight, and earnings went from negative to substantially positive. Is that likely to happen with some of the rest of our [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 5:20 PM

Re: I need some help and advice re some of my st

Oops, wrong link, though that one is good too. Here's Stocknovice's write up: https://boards.fool.com/a-deeper-look-at-smartsheet-smar-341...

Bear

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 5:17 PM

Re: I need some help and advice re some of my stocks

Saul,

I think you should check out Smartsheet again. It's growing faster than any of your 3 borderline positions.

Here's a great write up Stocknovice did a couple months ago: [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:41 AM

Re: OKTA and Identity-Centric Security

"Lastly, I’d like to address one final strategic priority for the year, security. The architecture for security shifting from network-centric to identity-centric as the firewall can no longer protect the nucleus of the [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:26 PM

Billings vs Revenue

Niki asked a very interesting question after AYX reported that has had me thinking. He pointed out that 2018 revenue was 203m (with the old AS605), and then immediately with AS606 it became 254m. So at ~$75/share and ~66 million shares, AYX would [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:13 AM

Re: NTNX: The lead gen snafu

Q1) Are these like for like $ numbers or are you calculating HW as well as SW/Subs into these numbers?
If you are including HW then the progression is not like for like. A year ago they were including HW/SW into $m deals and $m clients. Now [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 12:08 PM

Re: ESTC-25% Lockup Expires Tomorrow

This shows lockup expiration as 4/3...?

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/elastic-nv-10250...

Bear

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 11:01 AM

NTNX: The lead gen snafu

Snafu:

noun
1. a confused or chaotic state; a mess.
adjective
1. in utter confusion or chaos.
verb
1. throw (a situation) into chaos.

"Lead generation issues" really means "We can't find new [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 10:44 AM

Re: My answer to 'Question for the Board'

The Fool preaches a buy and hold philosophy which is great when you are trying to get thousands and thousands of people to be individual stock investors. Most people out there are just going to buy what the Fool says. If TMF can get them to just [more]

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PaulWBryant posted to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 8:03 PM

Bear's Portfolio through Feb 2019

My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +22.48%
Feb +33.46%

It’s hard to believe the SaaS revolution (or whatever you want to call it) that we’ve caught onto has lasted this long. I do think the market has [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:19 PM

Re: Elastic results with CC comments mixed in

Saul - My take – They are growing like mad, but growing expenses also to capture greenfield opportunities. Issues are their open source model and that they aren’t focussed on SaaS, but what the heck, they are growing at 70% the way it is. I love [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 7:53 PM

Re: Why Twilio is My Top Stock For 2019

Q4 2018 Q4 2017 Q4 2016

Active Customer Accounts 64,286 48,979 36,606

Revenue Growth 77% 40% 73%

Gross Margin 54% 53% 59%

Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate 147% 118% 155%

Heck of a chart! [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 4:52 PM

Re: AYX - News

https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2870178&headli...

"He believes Alteryx's 2019 revenue guidance could be [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:54 PM

Re: MDB

Price drop to customers by about 30%.

Which means they have to sell 50% more hours to get back to the same revenue (with Azure).

Potential to reduce revenue growth going forward if they don't get the increase in usage from [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 3:16 PM

Re: WIX: Deep Dive

It would be interesting to hear Bear's thoughts.

I'm not sure if WIX has typically low balled guidance in the past.

Wix's 2018 revenue guidance at the high end, as of:

Dec17: $595m
Mar18: [more]

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PaulWBryant replied to the Saul's Investing Discussions board. 2:32 PM

Re: TWLO Dec18 Q - All in.

How much of your thesis is based on the “hopes” for the negative factors coming good?

I ask this as I feel that several on the board have expressed an asymmetric and very selective set of hopes...that require a perfect scenario [on the [more]